Stat of the Day, 6th February 2015
Abundantly capitulated and folded pretty tamely at Taunton on Thursday, I’m afraid. He was in second place as they approached three from home and looking like he might be in with a shout, before the lights went out and he went into reverse.
He eventually trailed home 7th of the 10 runners at 7/1, well beaten by around 32 lengths in the end.
This obviously means I remain on the cold list, but I assure you my methods haven’t changed and history suggests it’s only a matter of time before we’re back amongst the winners. Sooner rather than later would be nice, starting with Friday’s…
Where Topaling is regarded an 11/4 BOG chance to record a sixth successive A/W handicap.
Those of you using our interactive racecards will know some of what I’m going to tell you, but hopefully I’ve still got some new information to impart too! On the card for this race, accessing the Instant Expert feature will quickly show you the following about Topaling…
- She’s 5/8 on the A/W (going)
- She has 2 wins and one place from four runs at Class 5
- She’s 3 from 3 here at Wolverhampton
- And 3/3 over today’s trip of 1m 6f (incidentally all over course and distance)
- And her record in races featuring 8 to 11 runners is 4 wins from 7.
All of the above is excellent data and quite possibly enough to convince you to place a bet, but I do have a bit more for you!
That 4/7 record in races of 8 to 11 runners extends to 5/8 in all races of 8 runners or more. She last raced 28 days ago and she’s 4/4 when running within 24 to 31 days of her last outing and all 5 career wins have been on left handed A/W tracks (3 here and 2 at Lingfield).
She’s trained by Mark Tompkins who steps her back up in class today after winning a Class 6 event last time out and Mark’s record with his handicappers stepping up in class and priced in the 2/1 to 8/1 bracket is 22 wins from 107 (20.6% SR) for level stakes profits of 45.8pts at an ROI of 42.8%.
Today’s jockey, Jimmy Quinn has a decent record aboard Mark Tompkins’ runners too an horses priced at 8/1 or shorter, he has ridden 32 winners from 140 attempts with that 22.9% strike rate generating profits of 43.2pts (+30.9% ROI).
Topaling is obviously up in the weights again for her last win, raised 6lbs, but I’m not convinced the assessor has got her just yet. I think there’s still scope for improvement from her and the fact that she just seems to do enough to win each time (largest victory margin is three quarters of a length!) makes it very difficult to pin an accurate rating on her. She’s likely to be one of those horses who we’ll not be sure about until she loses!
That said, I don’t expect her to lose today, so I’ve placed a 1pt win bet on Topaling at 11/4 BOG with BetVictor. If, unlike me, you’re not on restricted stakes with Paddy Power, you can get the same price from them, or you can simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS