Double Dutch, 7th February 2015
Unfortunately, Friday went the same way as Thursday with a winner in race 1 followed by an ultimately fruitless wait for race 2.
Great Try was well backed in his bid to get off the mark and as expected/predicted, he did so by just over a couple pf lengths and although the margin wasn’t great, he never really looked in danger. The only shock of the race was the performance of 25/1 runner-up Hedley Lamarr, who ran a great race on debut.
We then awaited news from Newcastle and it wasn’t good when it came. The well supported (early price 10/1, advised 5/1, ran at 4/1) Sam Lord fared best of our two runners, but didn’t have the required pace to go with his undoubted stamina and he came home in 4th place, some 27 lengths off the winner and 12 lengths shy of getting me a return on my E/W bet!
Thursday’s results were as follows:
Great Try : WON at 5/4 (adv 13/8)
Bringithomeminty : 5th at 5/2 (adv 9/4)
Sam Lord : 4th at 4/1 (adv 5/2)
Deny : 8th at 10/3 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
479 winning selections from 1687 = 28.39%
148 winning bets in 437 days = 33.87%
P/L : +84.88pts (+9.72% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
My last selections for this week are as follows…
After a 7 lengths victory on his hurdling debut, Cardinal Walter is expected to be the one to beat here, but I’m not convinced that he’ll win and if he does, whether he represent any value at 2/1 BOG today.
Qewy, at 9/2 BOG on the other hand, is very interesting. He receives 6lbs from the favourite, but was rated around a stone better than him on the Flat. He was third of six on his hurdling bow three weeks ago, but that was a Grade 2 affair with the two ahead of him both rated 138: the winner Aso was taking his tally to 3 from 5 that day and looks a reasonalbe E/W shot at large odds in the 3.35 race here today.
The other one I’m taking against the favourite in this one is Bouvreuil (or Bovril as us Northerners would call him! 🙂 ). He was a winner over hurdles at Enghien in France last November, before coming over to join Paul Nicholls and like most French recruits will have no problems with the soft ground here today. He was a decent third on his UK bow five weeks ago over this trip on soft ground at Sandown and should move forward again today.
In his favour as well as having had that run are the booking of the in-form Noel Fehily to replace a 5lb claimer, the drop down to Class 3 and the addition of a hood for the first time (Nicholls horses perform well 1st time in headgear). All of which makes Bouvreuil an interesting choice at 9/2 BOG.
When I was looking through the cards this morning looking for suitable selections for my Statpicks service, I liked to look of both Baddilini and Boom The Groom and the beauty of the Double Dutch is that I can take both!
So, in alphabetical order, we’ll start with Baddilini. He’s been very consistent since the return from a 6-month break despite not winning any of the five races he has contested. Finishes of 32352 (3232 over today’s trip) show he’s banging on the door and having only been beaten by a nose over course and distance last time out should be there or there abouts again and if it wasn’t for being drawn out wide (although 2 non-runners will bring him closer in), I’d have expected him to be a bit shorter than his current 7/2 BOG.
Boom The Groom on the other hand is much better placed in stall 3 and this is reflected in his best price of 5/2 BOG. He was considered good enough to compete in four Group/Listed events in Ireland in 2013, before taking a year off ahead of a switch to UK racing. He has been in fine form over the winter on the A/W with two wins and four runner-up finishes from just seven attempts.
In those races he has a 12221 going left handed and has ran twice over course and distance, firstly just three parts of a length behind the useful Lancelot du Lac four starts ago and then he won here two races later (5 weeks ago), making him a prime candidate again today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Qewy / Boom The Groom @ 16.88/1 (9/2 & 9/4 : Bet365 & Boylesports)
Qewy / Baddilini @ 23.75/1 (9/2 & 7/2 : generally)
Bouvreuil / Boom The Groom @ 16.88/1 (9/2 & 9/4 : Bet365 & Boylesports)
Bouvreuil / Baddilini @ 23.75/1 (9/2 & 7/2 : Bet365 & BetVictor)