SotD : Monday 09/02/15

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th February 2015

Eight ran at Warwick on Saturday, one was pulled up and seven finished. Our pick Vesuvhill was well fancied and was backed in to become the 2/1 favourite at the off, which gave me some relief that there wasn’t just us backing it!

Unfortunately, come the end of the race, he was 40 lengths off the pace and had no rivals behind him in a disappointing display where he gave us no sort of run at all.

All runs of form (good or bad) eventually come to an end and I’m hoping for a change in results from Monday’s…

3.50 Plumpton:

A Class 4 handicap chase over 2m4f on good to soft ground, where Alan King has booked Wayne Hutchinson to ride the chase debutant Roberto Pegasus, who can readily be backed at 4/1 BOG.

The trainer does well in handicap chases…

With those priced from Evens to 12/1 since the start of 2010, Alan has had 64 winners from 382 (16.8% SR) runners bringing in 30.8pts level stakes profits at an ROI of 8.1%. And whilst that’s a modest return, it’s only the prelude to better things.

From the 64/382 stats, today’s jockey Wayne Hutchinson is 30/141 (21.3% SR) for 61.5pts (+43.6% ROI) which is far more palatable and of those 141 runners, 88 had been rested for more than a month since their last run and 20 of the 88 (22.7% SR) returned with a win to generate profits of 45.4pts (+51.6% ROI).

Alan also likes it here at Plumpton…

…or at least he should! Since 2008, his record here is 32/83 (38.6% SR) for 20.8pts (+25% ROI) and it’s fairly surprising he doesn’t send more runners here based on that record. His chasers are 12/26 (46.2% SR) here for 8.9pts (+34.3% ROI) with a 3/9 record in handicap chases bearing 4.2pts profit.

Jockey Wayne Hutchinson rides the track well…

…as verified by a 15 wins from 50 (30% SR) record, which has produced profits of 7.1pts (14.2% ROI) to date with a 4/10 record in chases here.

And the two work well together…

…and have done for some time. Since 2008 the combo has had 202 winners from 1085 runners, with the excellent 18.6% strike rate generating 203.2pts profit at an ROI of 18.7%, whilst in handicap events, they have a record 69/462 (14.9% SR) for 112.2pts (+24.3% ROI).

Since 2010, their record in handicap chases has been very good with 31 winners from 177 (17.5% SR) and 63.5pts (+35.9% ROI) profit with those horses sent off in the 9/4 to 7/1 price banding winning 21 of 90 (23.3% SR) for 27.7pts (+30.8% ROI).

It’s the horse’s first crack at fences…

Since 2010, Alan King has sent 44 horses into handicap chases as their introduction to fences. The 13 subsequent winners is a very healthy 29.6% of the runners, whilst the 27.4pts profit give a fantastic ROI of some 62.2% and with no winners above 7/1, it seems like it pays to check the market first. Those priced at 7/1 or shorter are 13/35 (37.1% SR) for 36.4pts (+103.9% ROI)

Despite today being the first time that Roberto Pegasus has visited Plumpton or has tackled the larger obstacles, he won’t entirely be out of his comfort zone, as he has won three from five on good to soft ground and has two wins at today’s class 4 level under belt. He has already been successful over today’s 2m4f trip and was victorious on the only other occasion that he competed in a race with less than 8 runners.

Based on his hurdling prowess, he looks leniently treated here today and providing he takes to the fences (and having been schooled by Mr King, he really should!), he looks a decent proposition at 4/1 BOG. That price is widely available, but I’ve decided to place my 1pt win bet on Roberto Pegasus with Hills, but for your preferred bookies’ odds…

…click here for the latest betting on the 3.50 Plumpton

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.