Stat of the Day, 10th February 2015
Well, we finally got ourselves back in the winners’ enclosure yesterday courtesy of an impressive/gutsy chasing debut from Roberto Pegasus. Leading around the home turn, he was kicked on in a bid to take the race away from his rivals, but he was fairly soon caught and had a rival up alongside him from 2 out.
Unlike several of our recent selections, this one didn’t just roll over, he dug in, outjumped his challenger at the last fence and managed to open up an unassailable, if slender 1 length gap by the time he hit the line.
He was eventually returned as a 3/1 jt favourite, but we’d got on at 4/1 and to put my recent drought into perspective, SotD made decent enough profit in January and we’re only 2pts down this month, meaning that we’re actually just one winner shy of where I’d like to be by this point of February! A situation that will be resolved if I have backed the winner of Tuesday’s…
Where I think Spring Over looks long at 5/1 BOG. She’s very lightly raced for a 9 yr old with just seven races under her belt. That said, she’s used to coming here to Ayr, as four of those seven starts have been here, including her last run, where she was a little fortunate to run out a 33/1 winner by some 14 lengths three weeks ago.
She was, in fairness, running a big race and staying on strongly, but still had some work to do in 3rd place and 3 lengths down when the front two both fell 3 flights from home. Whether she would have won or not is debatable, but she was staying on and still had enough to open up that 14 lengths gap from 2 out.
Spring Over now runs back at the same track off the same mark at the same class and has every chance of going in again, but we’ll certainly not be getting 33/1 today!
Since 2008, horses who won their last race at odds of 28/1 to 100/1 and ran again at the same class, went on to win again on 81 of 596 occasions. This 13.6% strike rate has so far generated 131.7pts profit at an ROI of 22.1% with hurdlers doubling up 24 times from 148 (16.2% SR) runs for profits of 27.8pts (+18.8% ROI).
Handicap hurdlers fitting those criteria are 17/98 (17.4% SR) for 31.2pts (+31.9% ROI) profits with those priced from 7/2 to 11/1 winning 12 of 60 (20% SR) and producing 40.1pts profit at an ROI of 66.7%.
It’s also worth noting that since the start of 2010, unexposed (ie less than 10 career starts) handicap hurdlers who won by 2 to 15 lengths last time out and have had the benefit of a short rest, but not allowed to go rusty (ie running within 16 to 25 days of that last win) are 74/349 (21.2% SR) for 100.5pts (+28.8% ROI) profit.
Those are pretty respectable figures, but you know I like to drill down a bit further! Those priced in the 6/4 to 9/1 odds range have won 65 of 262 (24.8% ROI) for 95.1pts (+36.3% ROI) and those sent off at the type of odds I prefer to play at for SotD (ie 11/4 to 13/2) are 39/160 (24.4% SR) for 64.6pts (+40.4% ROI).
The tongue tie she wore to such good effect for the first time last time out is retained, as is the jockey from that first ever victory for Spring Over. She’s used to the course and handles soft/heavy ground well enough and whilst this race won’t be handed to her, I’d expect her to be in the mix.
I do think that her current odds are a little long, so we might well be grabbing some value from a 1pt win bet on Spring Over at 5/1 BOG. Several firms are offering this price, but I’ve gone with Hills, but you can take your pick of them all, when you…
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