Double Dutch, 11th February 2015
So, after 440 days, we hit our 150th winning double, but at just 5.75/1, we’re not quite ready to retire on the winnings.
The plan was a safety first approach to counteract the recent up and down nature of results and that there’d be some drift in the prices as the market contracted during the morning.
The safety first selection process worked with 1-2 finishes in both races, making a 5.75/1 double and two modest (12/5 & 13/5) exactas, but the selections actually shortened in price, so there was no bonus added to our BOG prices taken.
I suppose the exacta double at 11.25/1 was nice, but I’m not sure anyone (myself included!) would have done that!
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Engrossing : WON at 11/8 (adv 2/1)
Top of the Glas : 2nd at 6/4 (adv 11/8)
(The exacta paid £3.60)
Local Show : WON at Evens (adv 5/4)
Thunder and Rain : 2nd at 13/8 (adv 7/4)
(The exacta paid £3.40)
Results to date:
484 winning selections from 1699 = 28.49%
150 winning bets in 440 days = 34.09%
P/L : +96.31pts (+10.95% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
With the 150th double now safely in the bag, the next target/milestone is the 100pt barrier…
Twelve days ago over this course and distance, Feb Thirtyfirst beat Uganda Glory by two and a half lengths with the rest of the filed fairly spread out behind them. The winner is quite fairly up 5lbs for the win and the runner-up is up 2lbs, effectively making him 3lbs better off, but I fancy them to be 1-2 again today in a race where only the now-withdrawn The Yank had any real recent form.
Feb Thirtyfirst (9/4 BOG) has won over 2m 2.5f on soft ground in the past, so I’m not too concerned about his stamina being tested with the extra weight, whilst the 7/2 BOG Uganda Glory has stayed 2 miles with cut in the ground before now.
The 11/8 BOG market leader Streets of Newyork has been in excellent form over hurdles this winter after being kept sharp and fit via a decent summer flat racing programme. He was beaten by just a head on his return on Boxing Day (Class 4), before stepping a grade to win by 4.5 lengths over today’s course and distance (and Class 3 level) three weeks later (almost four weeks ago).
He has had one more outing since, 10 days ago also here at Musselburgh over today’s track and trip once more and went really well to finish second, beaten by just over a length in a Listed contest. He’s due to go up in weight soon and dropping back down in class, looks the one to beat here.
The biggest threat is expected to be from the 3/1 BOG El Beau, despite the rise in weight for this one of late. This 4 yr old is still relatively unexposed over hurdles, but has already had some excellent results in finishes of 112 coming after a very consistent and capable flat campaign. A win and a runner-up finish over today’s course and distance sandwich a win at Sedgefield over a slightly longer trip and on softer ground, so the easier conditions today might help him cope with the extra weight.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Feb Thirtyfirst / Streets of Newyork @ 6.31/1 (9/4 & 5/4 : Stan James)
Feb Thirtyfirst / El Beau @ 12/1 (9/4 & 3/1 : Ladbrokes)
Uganda Glory / Streets of Newyork @ 9.69/1 (7/2 & 11/8 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Uganda Glory / El Beau @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : Betfair Sportsbook)