Stat of the Day, 11th February 2015
As a 5/1 2nd/3rd favourite, I’d thought that Spring Over looked a bit long and I’d expected him to end up being shorter and heading the market. I suppose the fact he was sent off as the 6/1 fav meant I was half right?
As for the race itself, it can only be described as a non-event for us. The horse was held up for a run and when the time came to produce his effort, nothing was forthcoming and he weakly petered out of contention. Two of the twelve runners failed to complete and of the 1o who got home, only one was behind our runner who was a good 16 lengths off the pace.
No point dwelling on that disappointing run, we’ll now turn our attention to Wednesday’s..
And a 7/2 BOG bet with Betbright on Ismail Mohammed’s 7 yr old Mubtadi to be ridden by Joe Fanning this evening.
To date, if you’d backed every single Ismail Mohammed runner, you’d be in profit. Not a massive amount, but a profit from blind backing nontheless as 48 winners from 306 runners (15.7% SR) has generated 14.7pts profit at an ROI of 4.8%.
In handicap contests, his runners are 39/192 (20.3% SR) for 87.7pts (+4537% ROI) with those sent off at 10/1 or shorter winning 37 of 129 (28.7% SR) for 86.3pts (+66.9% ROI) profit.
His A/W handicappers fare even better when there’s a bit of money around, with those priced shorter than 7/1 having a record of 17 wins from 38 (44.7% SR) for 39.6pts (104.2% ROI).
Here at Kempton, Ismail’s horses are 8/37 (21.6% SR) since the start of 2013 with his handicappers winning 7 of 25 (28% SR) for 5.4pts (+21.6% ROI) profit. Once again there are some healthy numbers asscociated with the sub-7/1 runners. And this time the record is fantastic at 7 wins from 8 (87.5% SR) generating profits of 22.4pts (+280% ROI) from an admittedly very small sample size!
And as for Mubtadi, conditions look ideal for him here based on past exploits, for as he comes to tackle this 1m2f A/W handicap, we can see that…
…his decent career figures of 8 wins from 32 becomes 6/13 on the All-Weather, from which he is 3 from over today’s trip, including a course and distance win. He’s 6/12 on the A/W when running in races of 7 to 12 runners and he’s 7/9 when priced at 4/1 or shorter (so follow the money!).
He’s 1/1 under Joe Fanning and has a record of 7 wins from 15 when returning from a short break of 25 to 56 days (5 of those wins came from 9 attempts on the A/W. He obviously like this time of year as his record in the months of Jan/Feb/Mar consists of five wins from 6.
The stats give both horse and trainer a good chance and we just need to hope it all pieces together this evening, but I’ve certainly no worries about placing a 1pt win bet on Mubtadi at 7/2 BOG with Betbright. I’m very aware that other bookies are available and for their prices…
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