Stat of the Day, 12th February 2015
Mubtadi was backed in from our advised 7/2 to become the 9/4 favourite come race time, which I often find reassuring, as it means there are other people also believing it can win!
And sure enough, he looked well set to go and win, he travelled nicely just off the pace, held up for a run by the master of pace, Joe Fanning, until around the 2 pole.
The it was time to press the accelerator and go and win the race. The button was pushed and Joe got to work, but the end result was pretty disappointing: Mubtadi didn’t really do anything and looked very one-paced on his way to a 5th place finish, almost 5 lengths off the winner.
I’m still searching some consistency and my quest now takes us chasing in the heart of the Scottish Borders for the…
And a 7/2 BOG bet with Bet365 on Donald McCain’s rising chasing star, The Last Samuri, who predictably will be ridden by Jason Maguire.
Donald’s horses tend to go well here…
…since 2011 he has saddled up 37 winners from 127 runners here at Kelso, with the 29.1% strike rate producing level stakes profits of 71.4pts at an ROI of 56.3% ROI, which is very impressive, but let’s drill down further!
His chasers are 12/48 (25% SR) fo 17.8pts (+37.1% ROI) and the handicap chasers are 9/33 (27.3% SR) for 21.8pts (+66.1% ROI).
18 of those 33 competed over today’s track and trip of 2m 7.5f with 7 of the 18 winning (38.9% SR) their races and generating 14.2pts profit at an ROI of 79%. Jason Maguire’s contribution currently stands at 6/15 (40% SR) for 15.4pts (+102.6% ROI).
This horse was a winner 22 days ago on his last start…
…and unexposed (less than a dozen career runs) handicappers priced at 2/1 to 10/1 within 16 to 25 days of a win in a Novice Chase have gone on to win 32 of 138 (23.2% SR) of those handicaps, notching up 54.5pts (+39.5% ROI) in the process. The rated (OR) in the 95 to 135 range are 30/118 (25.4% SR) for 64.2pts (+54.4% ROI).
He’s also a very useful sort…
…as demonstrated by a career record of 5 wins and 2 places from just eight runs so far and there was no disgrace in the race in which he failed to make the frame as it was a grade 1 hurdle at the Aintree Festival last year. He has one win and one runner-up finish here at Kelso and he aims for a third chase victory, having won both his previous efforts over fences.
He’s 4/6 under Jason Maguire, happy with the ground conditions and has won races at various distances from 20f to 25.5f, so today’s trip should cause any concerns.
I think The Last Samuri is a horse that could go places and he’s certainly in the right hands to do so and I’d expect today to be a stepping tone to bigger and better things, so we should get on while we can. To that end I’m backing The Last Samuri at 7/2 BOG with Bet365 today. You can get the same price from BetVictor & Boylesports, but if you’d prefer to use a different firm…
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