Stat of the Day, 13th February 2015
The Last Samuri fell on his sword at the penultimate obstacle yesterday, which was a real shame, because he was looking very much like the winner approaching that fence. Held up slightly before stalking the leaders, he was travelling really well until he pecked on landing sending Jason Maguire to the ground.
These things do, however, happen in the wonderful world of jumps racing and there’s little/no point bemoaning our luck. Despite the fall, I still think it was a really good pick taking 7/2 about a 13/5 favourite, who’ll be winning again very soon.
That, of course, is all well and good and I could do with a win a little sooner, preferably in Friday’s…
A Class 3, handicap chase over 2m 5.5f on good to soft ground, where 8 runner are due at the post, of which my preference is for Lucy Wadham’s 3/1 BOG shot Canuspotit.
Her yard is coming into some form of late, grabbing a couple of winners at Sandown and Musselburgh, whilst an excellent 62% of all her runners have made the frame is the past two months, but it’s her record here at Fakenham ( a graveyard for many trainers) that has grabbed my interest.
Lucy is always on the SotD radar…
…because she has been proven to be profitable to follow blindly, which is always a good starting point! Since the start of 2008, if you had put £10 on each of her 1074 runners, here what you’d now know:
you’d have spent £10,740 landing 155 winners at an SR of 14.4%, excellent stats from such a large sample size. Your profits of £2534 would have grown your stakes by 23.6% and we can all walk away happy, can’t we?
Well, not quite, as there’s more… Chasers are 39/214 (18.2% SR) for profits of 87.8pts at an ROI of 41% and from the original 1074 bets, just 74 (6.9% of all runners) were handicap chasers priced at 7/1 or shorter, but 19 of the 74 (25.7%) were winners, achieving profits of 25.2pts (+34% ROI) to date.
And her record here at Fakenham?
Not quite as many runners as above, but impressive enough stats anyway, as follows:
19 winners from 83 (22.9% SR) for 25.7pts (+30.9% ROI).
Handicaps : 14/49 (28.6% SR) for 73.9pts (+43.1% ROI)
Chasers : 13/32 (40.6% SR) for 30.7pts (+95.8% ROI)
Hcp chasers : 8/19 (42.1% SR) for 27.1pts (+142.6% ROI)
All but one of her handicap chasers ran at 2m4f or beyond, winning 8 of 18 (44.4% SR) for 28.1pts (+156.1% ROI), whilst her overall record here at Fakenham at trips of 2m4f and beyond is 19 winners from 64 (29.7% SR) for 44.7pts.
And the horse?
Well, Canuspotit is still a maiden at the age of 8, but still unexposed after just six attempts over hurdles and two appearances in chases. He was unlucky to be brought down on his chasing debut at Market Rasen (2m 6.5f) on Boxing Day, before running very creditably in defeat over the same course and distance three weeks later (four weeks ago).
He was the runner-up that day and only beaten by a length and a half behind a typical Venetia Williams mudlark, but did have Ultimatum du Roy a further 11 lengths back in third place, yet he has since gone on to land a chase at Huntingdon eight days ago.
So, if the Market Rasen form holds out, the stage could well be set for Canuspotit to finally get off the mark at the ninth attempt and both Betfred and Boylesports suggest he’s a 3/1 BOG chance of doing so, as you’ll see when you…
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