Stat of the Day, 16th February 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th February 2015

Melvin The Grate was slow away on Saturday and it took him the best part of the first furlong to get on terms. He was reasonably well placed for a challenge coming off the home turn, although I’d have liked to see him a little closer to the action before setting off for home.

He stayed on well in the closing stages but didn’t have enough in his locker / had too much to do (delete as applicable!) to catch the leaders and we had to settle for 4th place, beaten by almost three lengths.

We beat the market fairly comfortably again, taking 7/2 about an 11/4 favourite (127.3% of SP), but it was still a point dropped, one I hope to recoup via Monday’s…

4.00 Carlisle:

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Where, on a day that looks particularly threadbare from a stats point of view, I’m referring the old adage of “horses for courses” (with a small stat-based titbit thrown in too, of course!).

The horse is Spanish Fleet…

…who, to date has a 3/13 record in all NH races, which alone isn’t too bad at all, but he’s 3/11 over hurdles and even more impressively, 3/5 here at Carlisle. He ‘s also 2 from 2 at today’s trip, so by default he’s 2/2 over course and distance!

When ridden by Brian Hughes over hurdles he has finished 8111 in four starts and his overall record when priced at 7/1 or shorter reads 1112 (beaten by a neck in a much better race than this on Boxing Day). In fact all those four runs have come off prices of 4/1 or shorter, as he’ll no doubt be today.

The ground conditions are also of little concern here, as he’s already won twice on soft ground at this track.

And with Brian Hughes in the saddle again, looking for a 4th straight hurdles win on Spanish Fleet, it’s interesting (to me, anyway!) to note that whenever Brian has ridden for trainer John Wade in a handicap race at Classes 3 to 5 level, he has won 32 of 186 races with the 17.2% strike rate generating 23.4pts profits at an ROI of 12.6%.

Yet, more pertinently, when Brian has ridden in those types of races for John on board a horse on which he has already been victorious, he has won again on 17/99 (17.2% SR) occasions. The strike rate is perfectly in line with the original stats, but the profits of 40.3pts represent a much better ROI of 40.7%.

A little shorter write-up than usual today, but that says more about the day’s racing than anything else! However, the dearth of stats aside, I’m pretty confident of getting the week off to a flyer with a 1pt win bet on Spanish Fleet at 100/30 BOG with Bet365, whilst Hills are next best at 3/1. To see what everyone else is offering…

…click here for the latest betting on the 4.00 Carlisle

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Here is today’s racecard.

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