Double Dutch, 16th February 2015
Double Dutch
Double Dutch, 16th February 2015
Carole’s Destrier was well supported in our opener on Saturday and fully justified the support from our advised 2/1 down to 5/4, as he won fairly comfortably by 8 lengths ahead of our 2nd pick Clondaw Knight, giving us a small bonus of a 19/4 forecast.
More importanly, it gave us two shots at the double, taking a 2/1 winner to the race at Haydock, where, as expected Fletchers Flyer was well ahead of Ballagh (22L) in the pecking order, but unfortunately for us, Definitely Red was a further half length ahead of our pick.
This left us in 2nd and 3rd place and although a winner and three placers is a decent return, it doesn’t pay us anything!
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Carol’s Destrier : WON at 5/4 (adv 2/1)
Clondaw Knight : 2nd at 10/3 (adv 7/2)
The forecast paid out at 19/4
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Fletchers Flyer : 2nd at 11/8 (adv 2/1)
Ballagh : 3rd at 7/2 (adv 11/4)
Results to date:
489 winning selections from 1714 = 28.53%
152 winning bets in 444 days = 34.23%
Stakes: 887.50pts
Returns: 983.24pts
P/L : +95.74pts (+10.79% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Monday is the start of a whole new week’s worth of opportunities, kicking off with the…
I’d be very surprised if this didn’t go to one of the two at the head of the market with previous winning form. At 7/4 BOG and making just his third start under rules, Three Faces West is the marginal favourite here. Both his trainer and jockey have good records here at Carlisle and this horse has run so far. He only had one point to point run, but he was a winner over 3 miles on heavy ground that day, beating Bally Braes (a winner at Bangor last month) in the process.
He didn’t enter any bumpers here, but went straight to a hurdling debut at Ayr (2. 4.5f on heavy) where he was only headed at the last hurdle, before returning to that venue to win by 6 lengths over 2 miles on soft ground. Mud clearly isn’t an issue, nor should the trip be and it’s easy to see why Three Faces West is popular in the market.
But I have a slight preference towards the more experienced (6 races so far) Gone Forever, who was 3212 in bumpers, showing an aptitude for soft ground, before winning his debut over hurdles by 9 lengths (2m3f, soft) at Market Rasen, despite coming off the back of a 2777-day absence. He had Capard King 19 lengths behind him that day, but the latter has since won his last two races.
And although Gone Forever was himself beaten by 13 lengths last time out, there are mitigating circumstances at play, 3m 1.5f on soft ground at Catterick was a bit of a stretch for him and he ran against a 1/2 hotpot. That said, he did have the 3rd placed horse a further 34 lengths back and a repeat of either of his two hurdles runs could be enough to take this at 15/8 BOG.
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Pearl Ransom has looked more settled/consistent since a fairly recent switch to Alan Bailey’s yard, finishing 2144 in his four outings for his new yard. The two latest defeats were closer affairs than 4th place might sound too (beaten by 1L & 1.75L). He was a short head away from grabbing third place last out, but was just denied by Stormbound who has since gone on to be a winner, as recently as last Wednesday.
Malaysian Boleh was 7th in that same race (2L behind our runner) and he, too, was a winner last Friday. If that forms holds out, then there’s no reason why Pearl Ransom can’t be the latest winner from that Lingfield run and if you think the same, then you can currently take 9/4 BOG about him.
Next best is likely to be the 11/4 BOG Walk Like A Giant for the rudely in-form Mick Appleby yard, who seem to be churning out the winners (7/28 in the last fortnight alone) of late. He was only beaten by half a length at Chelmsford last time out over 1m2f when undone by an enterprising ride from young Milly Naseb on India’s Song and he now comes here competing off that same mark.
Not being raised for that run has to be seen as a bonus and if settles a little sooner this time (pulled hard early on LTO) conserving a bit more energy for the finish. Andrew Mullen rode Walk Like A Giant for the first time that day and he’ll have learned quite a bit from that ride about how to handle him this time around and Andrew is certainly no mug with a 17.5% strike rate on the Appleby handicappers to date.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Three Faces West / Pearl Ransom @ 7.53/1 (13/8 & 9/4 : Betfred , BetVictor, Ladbrokes & Totesport)
Three Faces West / Walk Like A Giant @ 8.84/1 (13/8 & 11/4 : Bet365, BetVictor & Hills)
Gone Forever / Pearl Ransom @ 8.34/1 (15/8 & 9/4 : BetVictor)
Gone Forever / Walk Like A Giant @ 9.78/1 (15/8 & 11/4 : BetVictor)
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