Stat of the Day, 17th February 2015
We were undone by the familiar Harding/Richards combo at Carlisle yesterday, but I’ve no complaints about Spanish Fleet’s display in that race.
In fairness, he couldn’t get away with the hike in weight and although he was very competitive until the end, we didn’t even make the frame, eventually finishing 4th at an SP of 9/2, a fair bit longer than our advised 100/30 price!
The competitive nature of the race was demonstrated by us getting to within 3.5 lengths of the winner, despite being unplaced. The winner was a surprise, too, having looked well beaten at one point, before finishing like a train.
And if Monday’s cards were poor, I’ve little to say about today, other than we’ve what I see as a good chance in the…
A Class 5 handicap hurdle over 2m 0.5f, where Donald McCain will be seeking to improve his decent record at this track via the 6yr old Nefyn Bay . His yard is certainly in good form, with five winners from 22 in the last week alone and 14 winners from 70 (20% SR) over the past month.
Since 2008, with runners priced at 8/1 or shorter, Donald has saddled up 38 winners from 147 runners at a strike rate of 25.9%, which has generated level stakes profits of 24.7pts at an ROI of 16.8%.
Nefyn Bay was a winner over this trip at Doncaster last time out, 25 days ago and not only was that his first win, it was actually the first time he’d made in the frame in any of his 6 starts: his record now reads 956451.
That’s not a concern, though, as since 2008, handicap hurdlers who won last time out 11-30 days ago after a run of 3 or more consecutive unplaced efforts, then went on to win again on 160 of 926 (17.3% SR) occasions, producing 235.9pts profit at an ROI of 25.5%.
The ethos behind this is really simple: a trainer has an out of form horse and conditions/tactics etc change and the horse finally wins. The trainer then gives the horse a short rest before asking him to give another good account of him whilst the win is still fresh in the mind.
Of those 926 runners above (a fair old sample size!), 636 were sent off in the 5/2 to 10/1 price range, yielding 121 winners (19% SR) and 194.2pts (+30.5% ROI) level stakes profits and runners in that price bracket are 69/295 (23.4% SR) for 158.6pts (+53.8% ROI) in the last three years.
Nefyn Bay was possibly a little harshly treated after that win at Doncaster last month by being raised 9lbs, but with the talented James Cowley claiming 6lbs here, the rise in weight seems manageable.
A quick glance at the markets at 12.40 am showed that five of the seven firms, open for business on this race, were offering 4/1 BOG about Nefyn Bay, and I’m on Hills, purely because I’ve more money in that account than any other!
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