Stat of the Day, 19th February 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th February 2015

Wow! Wasn’t young Tom Marquand just brilliant aboard Nouvelle Ere at Kempton on Wednesday evening? This young rising star gave his horse every ounce of energy in his little frame to drive the horse from well off the pace.

With a furlong or so to go, the pair didn’t look like making the frame, but it was a really well-timed finish from a horse really well backed to be the 13/8 favourite.

We got on at 7/2, absolutely blitzing the SP, taking more than double that amount from the race and that’s 2 on the bounce for SotD this week. I now go hat-trick seeking with a familiar name to SotD readers in Thursday’s…

2.30 Sedgefield:

Where I’m taking 7/2 BOG once again, this time on Dianne Sayer’s Discoverie for a Class 4 Handicap hurdle contest over 2m1f on soft ground.

Let’s start with the trainer…

…Dianne Sayer. I like to keep an eye on her runners, quite simply because they’re profitable to back! Since the start of 2011, if you’d backed all her NH runners, you’d have had 94 winners from 776 bets; a 12.1% strike rate yielding 244.7pts profit at an ROI of 31.5%.

Those are decent enough figures from blind backing, but drilling down gives us the following :
Handicaps : 89/635 (14% SR) for 193.8pts (+30.5% ROI)
Hcp Hurdles :61/413 (14.8% SR) for 174.9pts (+42.4% ROI)
(11/39 = 28.2% SR here at Sedgefield for 90.5pts = 232.1% ROI)
Hcp Hurdlers priced 9/4 to 8/1 : 43/178 (24.2% SR) for 97.5pts (+54.8% ROI)
(7/22 = 31.8% SR here at Sedgefield for 25.7pts = 116.6% ROI)

Discoverie seeks a hat-trick of C&D wins…

Since 2009, former C&D winners who also won last time out are 13/42 (30.95% SR) for profits of 12.9pts (+30.7% ROI) in Class 4 handicaps here at Sedgefield. Hurdlers are 6/19 (31.6% SR) for 4.12pts (+21.7% ROI) and horses priced from 6/4 to 6/1 are 13/32 40.6% SR) for 22.9pts (+71.5% ROI)

Hurdlers priced from 6/4 to 6/1 have a record reading 6 wins from 12 (50% SR) for profits of 11.1pts (+92.6% ROI)

Dianne’s LTO winners fare well generally…

Since the start of 2011, Dianne’s handicap hurdlers who were winners last time out, went on to win again on 14 of 53 (26.4% SR) occasions, generating level stakes profits of 9.9pts at an ROI of 18.6%. Here at Sedgefield, those figures equate to 3 winners from 6 for 4.8pts profit.

Those sent off in the 6/4 to 6/1 range won 12 of 33 (36.4% SR) for 25.7pts (+77.8% ROI) profit with a 2/3 record for 5.3pts here at Sedgefield.

Discoverie clearly likes it around here, having won back to back course and distance contests on similarly soft ground to what he’ll encounter today and although he’s up in weight, he still carries less than most of his rivals here today.

And whilst he clearly won’t have it as easy as he has done in his two previous outings, I still think he has more to give and I’m confident of a return from my 1pt win bet on Discoverie at 7/2 BOG. I’m on with Bet365 for this one, but BetVictor are offering the same price, as you’ll see when you…

…click here for the latest betting on the 2.30 Sedgefield

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Here is today’s racecard.