Double Dutch, 19th February 2015
Half a length was the difference between success in the shape of a 12.5/1 double and failure yesterday and unfortunately we were on the wrong end of it this time.
In the second of our selected races, Par Three got first run and stole a handful of lengths off the home turn and although Thundering Home finished in a manner befitting his name, he just failed to reel in the leader with our other pick Feb Thirtyfirst a further half length back.
All this came after Twirling Magnet proved, as I thought he might, that he was the class act in the Hunter Chase at Ludlow. He cruised to a pretty comfortable eleven length victory with our other runner Lake Legend the last of five finishers from a 7-runner race and beaten by almost 20 lengths.
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Twirling Magnet : WON at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
Lake Legend : 5th at 5/2 (adv 2/1)
Thundering Home : 2nd at 7/2 (adv 3/1)
Feb Thirtyfirst : 3rd at 11/8 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
494 winning selections from 1726 = 28.62%
154 winning bets in 447 days = 34.45%
P/L : +103.63pts (+11.60% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Yesterday’s setback aside, we’re in the middle of decent results for DD and I’m hoping for this to continue in the following races for Thursday…
Kylemore Lough got off the mark in his third and final PTP race, before embarking upon a career over hurdles, and since his Rules debut in December, he has won all three starts over timber by a combined margin of 60 lengths. This is obviously a massive step up in class/quality for him today, but it’s difficult to fully assess how good he really has been so far. He could have won his previous outings by much further and that slightly underestimates him here.
There’s no doubting that he can hurdle, though and his latest run was off a mark of 135 and he’s now rated at 140 for this Listed event and if all four runners run to their mark, then Kylemore Lough should hold his rivals based on weight and go on to score at 2/1 BOG.
The biggest danger is top weight Different Gravey, who looks like a typical Henderson improver, stepping up in class for a Novice hurdle. He has already competed and won at a higher level than his rivals today.
He holds Brother Tedd based on their recent meeting at Cheltenham and with A Vos Gardes looking outclassed and an unlikely contender, Different Gravey almost becomes the backup choice by default and can be backed at 2/1 BOG today.
With an OR of 71, Plaisir is best in at the weights of those with an official mark and has been running with some credit in defeat so far. Despite still being a maiden after four starts, she hasn’t been out of the frame yet (3222) and she has only been beaten by three parts of a length on each of her last two outings.
Last time out was her first run here at Chelmsford and also her first crack a 1 mile, so she should benefit from that run, turned back out again over course and distance. Cheekpieces are added today in a bid to get a bit more out of her and at around 7/4 BOG, Plaisir has probably got her best chance to date.
The issue is that she always seems to find one too good for her and there is a worry that the 2/1 BOG Falconize might well improve past her today. She was only beaten by the 73-rated Hollie Point last time out and had a couple of 71-rated horses behind her that day. Her breeding suggests she’ll relish the step up to a mile, a theory borne out by the way she finished that previous race.
Falconize finished like a train last time out, coming from last to second over the final furlong, making ground on the leader with every step and with the extra distance today, she’s a likely winner if not given quite as much to do late on.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Kylemore Lough / Plaisir @ 7.94/1 (9/4 & 7/4 : Coral)
Kylemore Lough / Falconize @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : Coral)
Different Gravey / Plaisir @ 6.91/1 (15/8 & 7/4 : betVictor)
Different Gravey / Falconize @ 7.63/1 (15/8 & 2/1 : Hills & Betfred)