Double Dutch, 20th February 2015
There was a massive gulf in quality between our two chosen races yesterday, a competitive Listed event against a weak-looking maiden on the A/W and of course, it was the maidens who let us down!
Different Gravey had too much for his rivals in the Listed hurdles race at Huntingdon, asserting himself late on to win by 3 lengths still going away and with a small drift out to 2/1, gave us a nice 1.5pts stake on each of our two maidens at Chelmsford…
..who both failed to shine or even make the frame. Even money favourite Plaisir was beaten by 7 lengths into 4th place, whilst 2nd pick Falconize was another six lengths and two places further back in a well strung out field.
When the first three home are priced at 25/1, 16/1 & 20/1, you know it’s not your day. A £1222.00 trifecta anyone? 😀
Thursday’s results were as follows:
Different Gravey : WON at 2/1 (adv 15/8)
Kylemore Lough : 3rd at 13/8 (adv 9/4)
Plaisir : 4th at Evs (adv 7/4)
Falconize : 6th at 15/8 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
495 winning selections from 1730 = 28.61%
154 winning bets in 448 days = 34.38%
P/L : +101.63pts (+11.35% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Here’s how I’m approaching Friday…
David Pipe (9/28 in the last 2 weeks) and Tom Scudamore (8/23) are a force to be reckoned with when pairing up (7/17 in 2 weeks) and in Molo they have a lightly raced 5yr old mare who has won two of her four starts to date, including success on her hurdling debut. She has tired late on in her last two races, so a drop back in trip should help her cause today.
That said, she was only beaten into third place, less than 3 lengths behind the runner-up who has since run very creditably to finish 4th in a Listed race off a mark of 120 and it looks like Molo has been fairly well treated for her handicap debut being allotted an OR of 114, which should give her a great chance at 2/1 BOG.
The danger here lies at the bottom of the weights with Rosa Imperialis, who was an easy 12 lengths winner on Boxing Day and she was 14 lengths clear of third placed Forgivienne who has since finished as a runner-up off a mark of 107 and beaten by just two lengths, making Rosa’s mark of 110 look pretty fair.
She is, of course, 10lbs higher than that won, but she doesn’t have to carry the weight as far and receiving quite a bit of weight from all her rivals on soft ground might well be the factor here. She has no stamina issues and she likes the mud. All in all, Rosa Imperialis isn’t a bad bet at 4/1 BOG.
Ed Walker doesn’t send many to Wolverhampton, but he’s 8/37 here in the last couple of years, but more relevantly he’s 4/14 for 9.25pts profit on the tapeta. He runs Single Lense here today who was second on debut over 7f and doing all his best work late on, suggesting the step up to a mile here would suit. He’s by Kodiac, whose offspring go well at this type of trip and have a decent record on this surface.
Luke Morris is in the saddle again and he’ll know more about the horse this time around, making them the likely winners here at 15/8 BOG, with the biggest challenge probably coming from Bittern, who represents the in-form (7/19 in the last 2 weeks) Charlie Appleby. This horse was a decent third on debut over this track and trip back in October and was a runner-up last time out.
She now steps down in class from her run at Kempton two months ago where she beat a couple of subsequent winners (one of whom won off 73 last month). Bittern sets the form standard and at 3/1 BOG looks a decent value backup.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Molo / Single Lense @ 7.63/1 (2/1 & 15/8 : Betfair SB, Paddy Power & Stan James)
Molo / Bittern @ 11/1 (2/1 & 3/1 : Bet365, Paddy Power & Stan James)
Rosa Imperialis / Single Lense @ 13.38/1 (4/1 & 15/8 : Betfair SB, Paddy Power & Stan James)
Rosa Imperialis / Bittern @ 19/1 (4/1 & 3/1 : generally)