Stat of the Day, 20th February 2015
Yesterday I told you that following Dianne Sayer was a profitable exercise and she had two winners and two placers from 6 runners, as if to prove my point.
Unfortunately for this blog, Discoverie could only finish third ad was only beaten by a length, despite the market not fancying him (drifted from 7/2 to 11/2!). He was by no means disgraced, just losing out in a three way battle for the lead.
Friday is a busy day of racing and I turn my attentions to the…
Which is a Class 3 handicap chase over three miles on soft ground, where Tom Scudamore will ride David Pipe’s 7/2 BOG rated Top Wood.
Trainer and jockey are in good nick…
In the last fortnight, David’s runners have won 9 of their 28 outings, whilst Tom has successfully brought 8 of his 26 mounts back to the winners’ enclosure. Tom’s record on David’s horses in the last fortnight is 7/17, which comes as no surprise, as we’ll see shortly!
Back the Pipe chasers…
…and you will make money!
That’s a bold claim, but it’s one that stands up. Since the start of 2008, if you’d put £10 on each of 1334 chasers sent out by Mr Pipe, you would have had 220 winning bets to date. This excellent 16.5% strike rate would have netted you £1376 profit, giving you a return of 10.3% above all stakes invested. And that’s from blind unfiltered backing.
There are many ways of breaking that 220/1334 stat down, but I’m just going to do five examples, based around today’s selection Top Wood, who will be ridden by Tom Scudamore over 3 miles carrying 11-0 at the age of 8 off an OR of 130, so let’s see how that pans out.
JOCKEY : Tom Scudamore is 135/719 (18.8% SR) for 166.8pts (+23.2% ROI) on the Pipe chasers.
DISTANCE : Over trips of 2m5.5f to 3m2.5f (ie 2.5f either side of 3m) : 117/637 (18.4% SR) for 221.1pts (+34.7% ROI)
WEIGHT : Carrying 10-8 to 11-4 : 104/549 (18.9% SR) for 147.3pts (+26.8% ROI)
AGE : 8/9 yr olds are 68/446 (15.3% SR) for 125.8pts (+28.2% ROI)
RATING : OR of 122 to 139 : 68/391 (17.4% SR) for 173.9pts (+44.5% ROI)
You can, of course, mix and match those to your heart’s desire, but the more you mix, the smaller the sample size becomes. If you expand some of the categories slightly, you’ll end up with a small microsystem that I’m happy for you take away with you, if that’s your thing…
…Since the start of 2008, backing all David Pipe chasers ridden by Tom Scudamore over 2m5.5f to 3m2.5f carrying 10-12 to 11-11 at the ages 5 to 9 yrs old off an OR of 113 to 159 gives you 27 winners from 112 selections, a 24.1% strike rate bearing level stakes profits of 158.4pts at an ROI of 141.5%
The above micro has been giving around 25 bets per year over the last few years, so it’s a nice little addition to any portfolio you might be building. It is in profit already for 2015 and has made a profit in 6 of the last 7 full years.
Top Wood, for his part, was winning a far better standard of race than this a year ago at Haydock over hurdles off today’s mark and he was a winner on his chasing debut back in May. he unseated his rider next time out and was then rested (schooled, no doubt!) for 220 days before reappearing at Warwick six weeks ago.
He ran really well for the majority of that race at Warwick over hurdles off 136, with his challenge only fading late on over 3m2f and both the winner and the runner-up have gone on to win again since, the latter taking a grade 2 event.
Today’s race represents a drop in class, a drop in trip and a mark 6lbs lower than that run. Top Wood could potentially be well in here and as such, is well worth a 1pt win bet at 7/2 BOG. This price is on offer in at least three places, but I’m on with Hills.
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS