Double Dutch, 21st February 2015
After 2m3f on soft ground Molo’s three quarters of a length defeat was what stood between us and a tidy 8/1 double, as Single Lense just prevailed late on at Wolverhampton, holding on to win by the narrowest of margins.
Those heroics counted for nothing, though, as the bet was already dead, some six hours or so earlier.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Molo : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 2/1)
Rosa Imperialis : 5th at 11/4 (adv 4/1)
Single Lense : WON at 2/1 (adv 15/8)
Bittern : 5th at 7/4 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
496 winning selections from 1734 = 28.60%
154 winning bets in 449 days = 34.30%
P/L : +99.63pts (+11.10% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Picking up a winner each day is nice, but we don’t get paid unless we get two together, which will hopefully come from these today…
Where it looks like Franco’s Secret will be the one they’ll have to beat. This lightly raced 4 yr old has won 3 and placed twice in his last five runs, all on the A/W. He ran here at Lingfield for the first time a month ago and produced a blistering turn of pace late on to win over course and distance and despite a 5lb rise in weight, still looks to be on the right side of the assessor.
When winning here last time out, he had Stormbound two lengths behind him in third place and the latter has since franked that run by going on to win over this course and distance just 10 days ago. After just eight career starts Franco’s Secret is entitled to carry on improving and I suspect he’ll be the likeliest winner here at Paddy Power’s 5/2 BOG, but he’ll have to repel the threat of…
…Nigel’s Destiny, if he is to do so. This even less experienced (just 6 starts) runner was also in good nick when last seen, winning a 1m maiden at Kempton back n October, before backing that up with a win over the same course and distance on his handicap debut 12 days later. His only run since that win was also at Kempton over a mile, where he ran well in a 1.25 length defeat.
He was beaten by Rizal Park that day, who himself was unlucky not to win at Chelmsford last week and with this trip suiting Nigel’s Destiny, the booking of Ryan Moore is a major plus for this 11/4 BOG chance, who already has the benefit of a decent run here at Lingfield under his belt (lost by 1/5 lengths on debut).
I looked a this race last night and each time I considered finding a bet from it, I found that I couldn’t choose between God’s Own and Irish Saint, but the beauty of the Double Dutch is that I can take both! The markets suggest that three of the six set to run here can easily be discounted and I think my duo have the beating of Melodic Rendezvous who makes a big step up in grade today.
On weights, God’s Own is technically 10lbs well in over Irish Saint and already boasts chasing victories at both Grade 1 and Grade 2 level, beating Balder Succes (winner of last week’s Gr 1 Betfair chase) by five lengths at Exeter in November. He hasn’t quite been at his time in two subsequent runs, but his trainer has had him off the track for 8 weeks and reports that he looks back to his best at home.
God’s Own is currently priced at 3/1 BOG with Stan James to win a race in which he was runner-up to the afore-mentioned Balder Succes last year, whilst Irish Saint can be backed at 2/1 BOG in his bid to extend an impressive record in his short chasing career to date. In four efforts over fences, he has finished 1312 with the latest run coming when he was the nearest challenger to the talented Gitane du Berlais in a Grade 1 chase at Sandown three weeks ago.
Irish Saint was no mug over hurdles either with grade 2 success a year ago and although this is his first crack at Kempton’s fences, he’s 2/2 here, loves the cut in the ground and performs well in small fields. If all goes to plan, we could have a real exciting race on our hands.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Franco’s Secret / Irish Saint @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : Betfair SB)
Franco’s Secret / God’s Own @ 12/1 (9/4 & 3/1 : Stan James)
Nigel’s Destiny / Irish Saint @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : generally available)
Nigel’s Destiny / God’s Own @ 13.44/1 (14/5 & 14/5 : Betbright)