Stat of the Day, 21st February 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 21st February 2015

It was a winner and two placers from 4 rides for the Pipe/Scudamore alliance at Exeter yesterday and unfortunately for us, Top Wood could only manage to finish third in a race that became a real slog.

Half of the eight runners failed to finish, yet our runner performed really well for much of the contest, but visibly tired ate on, which in turn caused some jumping errors.

No complaints about the run, he was beaten by better on the day, that’s all. We did manage to beat the 3/1 SP by half a point, which is always one of our goals.

Last selection of the week and we’re moving to the All-Weather for the…

2.50 Lingfield:

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Where 7 runners are set to contest this Class 5 3yo maiden over a mile and a half. A race in which I’m siding with the Mark Johnston-trained and Joe Fanning-ridden Mister Rockandroll, who makes his fifth start today.

The best of his four runs to date as his only effort on the A/W, when finishing second at Kempton, beaten by three lengths staying on and looking he needed/wanted further than 1m2f, which he will get today at a track where his trainer has done well in the past.

Since 2009 Mark Johnston’s record here at Lingfield on the A/W with horses in what could loosely be described as SotD territory ie 9/4 to 13/2 stands at 51 winners from 211 runners, a 24.2% strike rate producing 54.9pts of level stakes profits at an ROI of 26%, which is very nice indeed.

His 3yr olds are 35/131 (26.7% SR) for 41.7pts (+31.8% ROI) and he has 23/79 (29.1% SR) record in maidens that has generated 35.5pts (+44.9% ROI) profit.

In 3yr old only races, the figures become 22 winners from 86 (25.6% SR) for 26.6pts (+30.9% ROI) and in 3yo maidens there have been 9 winners from 34 (26.5% SR) for 8.9pts (+26.2% ROI).

Jockey Joe Fanning also rides well here and in the same 2009/15 timeframe as above, has ridden 104 winners from 593 outings (17.5% SR) for 129.9pts (+21.9% ROI) profit: once again, these are excellent figures. In maidens, Joe has 35 winners from 173 (20.2% SR) for 31.3pts (+18.1% ROI) profit.

His record on 3 yr old maidens is 27 wins from 110 (24.6% SR) for 60.8pts (+55.3%ROI) and in race restricted to just 3yo maidens, he is 15/66 (22.7% SR) for 56.4pts (+85.4% ROI) and he generally fares better when the money is down with 10 wins from 24 (41.7% SR) on those priced from 6/4 to 9/2, which have then produced level stakes profits of 17.2pts at an ROI of 71.5%.

The step up in trip really should suit Mister Rockandroll today and he’s also entitled to improve for having a previous run on an A/W surface. He had Framley Garth over 4 lengths behind him at Kempton, but the latter has finished 3231 since that day, finishing as runner-up in a Class 3 handicap last time out.

This doesn’t look a particularly strong race and whilst most of the focus will be on the Appleby & Balding runners, I’m hopeful that we might just sneak under the radar and land a winner with Mister Rockandroll at 4/1 BOG with Bet365.

The full market (when formed) can be quickly seen when you…

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Here is today’s racecard.

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