Stat of the Day, 24th February 2015
Monday was a really day for stat followers, especially those following what I posted on this blog. Trainer David Bridgwater was 2 from 2 at Plumpton with a 14/1 double at SP that had paid considerably more on BOG prices, whilst jockey Tom Scudamore was also 2/2 on the card with his double paying out at an SP of 21/1.
They had one ride in common, our SotD horse, Nomadic Storm, who defied a market drift out to 3/1 from my advised 9/4 BOG to win pretty comfortably in the end. Ignore the official 2.5 length margin of victory, this race was over from a long way out.
And now for Tuesday, something a little different than usual and a rare foray into the E/W market in the…
Where, on a day hardly overloaded with stat-worthy runners, I’ve taken 7/1 E/W BOG about David Evans’ Smugglers Lane, who arrives here on the back of a course and distance win a little under a fortnight ago. That was his first visit to Lingfield and is entitled to come on for having had that first experience of this track.
Since 2008, David Evans’ runners with CD next to their name on a racecard and who also won last time out (anywhere, any trip!) have won 24 of 113 handicap contests with the 21.2% strike rate of runners priced at 12/1 or shorter has produced level stakes profits of 38.5pts at an ROI of 34.1%. And with a total of 62 runners (54.9 %SR) making the frame, E/W backers have been rewarded with profits of 30.1pts.
Here at Lingfield, those figures are 6 wins and 9 further placers from just 19 runners with the win strike rate of 31.6% and the placed strike rate producing win profits of 8.8pts (+46.3% ROI) and E/W returns of 11.3pts at an ROI of 29.7%.
Jockey Harry Burns will take 5lbs off Smugglers Lane today and David has a good recent record with 5lb claimer jockeys. Since the start of 2011, 5lb claimers have won on board 24 of the 121 (19.8% SR) David Evans’ handicappers priced between 4/1 & 9/1, which is where we’re likely to be playing today.
Those winners have generated 78.7pts of level stakes profit at an ROI of 39.7%.
Smugglers Lane beat the re-opposing Medicean Melody by 2.5 lengths last time out over course and distance and although the latter is now better off at the weights, I feel there’s more to come from Smugglers Lane and as the only course or distance winner in the field, his recent experience should pay dividends.
I think there’s a very good chance he’ll go and win again, but when 7/1 BOG is on the table from Skybet and the Betfair Sportsbook, I’m going to take the cautious E/W route with Smugglers Lane today. A win will still give us 4.2pts profit on the day, whilst a place will guarantee a small positive return.
Obviously, you should feel free to go win only, if you’re happy to do so and if you need a full market overview…
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