Stat of the Day, 25th February 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 25th February 2015

We backed Smugglers Lane at what I perceived to be a good price of 7/1 BOG yesterday and whilst we beat SP by a point, I was surprised he didn’t go off shorter than his final 6/1 price.

He saw off the more fancied runners in the pack on the run for home and looked well set for victory with a furlong to go, having been the subject of a really good and well-timed ride from 5lb claimer Harry Burns.

The bad news is that they were finally overhauled 100 yards from the line, going down to defeat by less than three parts of a length as the pack warmed down on them. The good news is that we’d taken the E/W insurance bet, enabling us to at least walk away with a 20% profit from the bet.

A 0.2pt profit might not attractive or sexy, but if repeated each day for the 6 days a week we operate SotD, that could actually be worth over 62pts a year, which most of us would settle for. Small acorns, you see! 😀

However, I’d still like to make a bit more, so I’m off to consider the…

4.25 Bangor:

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A Class 4 handicap hurdle over 2m5f, where Rascal is a 3/1 BOG chance in his bid to repeat his win at Ludlow from last Wednesday (2m5f), when he romped home by 11 lengths of a mark of 115 to become the latest in a long line of winners for…

…his trainer Dan Skelton, who…

…has a really good record in handicap contests. Since the start of 2010, his handicappers priced from evens to 12/1 have won 46 of 210 (21.9% SR) races, generating level stakes profits of 53pts at an ROI of 25.2%, with his handicap hurdlers weighing in with 15 winners from 82 (18.3% SR) for 31.5pts (+38.4% ROI).

In that time, there have only been four qualifying horses running here at Bangor with the last of them being his sole winner from the four and that was ridden by today’s jockey Miss B Andrews whose 7lb claim will negate Rascal‘s penalty from that facile win a week ago and she is also riding well herself, with a winner as recently as yesterday when steering Nefyn Bay home to victory by 7 lengths at Catterick.

Rascal is turned out quickly…

…and since 2010, Dan Skelton’s horses running at sub-12/1 odds within a week of a top four finish last time out are 17 from 48 (35.4% SR) for 34.6pts (+72% ROI) profit. The hurdlers in that subset have won 6 of 17 (35.3% SR) for 14.4pts (+84.9% ROI) profit, whilst LTO winners won again on 6 of 16 (37.5% SR) occasions for 7.5pts (+46.9% ROI) profits.

Hurdlers who won LTO are 2/4 for 5.4pts.

He won comfortably last time too…

…making all and almost strolling home to win by 11 lengths to score his second win in eight starts (141 in last three runs!). In the last five years, handicap hurdlers with less than 10 career starts who were priced at 13/2 or shorter running within 7 days of a win by 4 to 15 lengths (ie comfortable, but not destructive!), won next time around on 34 of 66 occasions (51.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 23.5pts (+35.7% ROI).

And his breeding suggests the trip is right…

Rascal is by Milan whose offspring are 46/328 (14% SR) for 108pts (+32.9% ROI) profit in handicap hurdles over 2m4f / 2m4.5f (to allow for distance variations!) and with the ground currently soft here at Bangor with yet more rain on the way, it’s interesting to note that from that  46/328 Milan stat, the figures on soft / soft to heavy ground are 15/87 (17.2% SR) for 38.6pts (+44.4% ROI) profit.

All of which points to another big run from Rascal here today. He likes to get on with things and there’s a couple of front runners in the field here, so he won’t have to do all the work himself and a decent pace should be set. If that’s the case, it will play into his hands (hooves?) even more, making me pretty confident that we’ll be collecting from a 1pt win at 3/1 BOG on Rascal this afternoon.

I’ve gone with Bet365 on this occasion, but both BetVictor & Boylesports are showing the same price, so you can take your pick of the pack when you…

…click here for the latest betting on the 4.25 Bangor

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Here is today’s racecard.

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