Double Dutch, 26th February 2015
Wednesday started in a similar vein to how the rest of the week had gone with Bobbits Way defying a market drift to win pretty comfortably to secure back to back successes. And with Eastern Witness finishing as runner-up, I helped myself to a nice 12.6/1 forecast as a result.
(Note to recent new subscribers. The forecast is not a suggested bet, nor do I keep records of them, but myself and several readers like to play the forecasts each day)
This meant a tidy stake going on to the race at Kempton, but the best we could manage was Baltic Knight’s runner-up finish as he failed by the best part of three lengths to rein in the filly who got first drop on the field and wasn’t for getting caught!
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Bobbits Way : WON at 4/1 (adv 11/4)
Eastern Witness : 2nd at 5/2 (adv 11/4)
The forecast paid £13.64 here.
Baltic Knight : 2nd at 11/8 (adv 15/8)
The Rectifier : u/p at 4/1 (adv 10/3)
Results to date:
502 winning selections from 1749 = 28.70%
157 winning bets in 453 days = 34.66%
P/L : +105.32pts (+11.63% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Thursday’s mission is to get back amongst the winners of these races…
A fairly dreadful looking race if truth be told, but it does represent a good opportunity for a couple of runners to improve upon the promise shown in recent debut runs.
East River was fourth here over 6f a little over three weeks ago and after having raced prominently weakened and lost ground/a couple of places in the final furlong, so it is expected that a drop back to 5f today might all be that’s needed to take this weak contest at 11/4 BOG.
And the other one to show promise on debut was Leith Bridge, who finished third at Kempton four weeks ago. He was sent off at a big price that day (33/1) and took to the task very well, to the extent that he was only beaten by 3.75 lengths despite being eased towards the finish, once his jockey knew he was beaten, but has secured third place.
Both of these runners are expected/entitled to come on for having had that run and if pushed to pick just one preference, I’d probably marginally take the 5/2 BOG about Leith Bridge here.
What A Good Night represents the successful Dan/Harry Skelton partnership and should really be coming here off the back of three successive wins, but fell two starts ago at the penultimate fence when a good 12 lengths clear. He regained his confidence, though, to win again next time (and last time) out when stepping up two classes to today’s level for the first time.
That race was at Wetherby over 3m1f and three of his six rivals from that day have subsequently ran and won over fences, so if the form stands up, What A Good Night is your likely winner at 5/2 BOG with the biggest threat expected to come from course and distance winner Tony Star, who also represents a formidable duo in the form of Hobbs/Johnson who have a good record here at Ludlow.
That course and distance win last time out (a month ago) was his first visit to Ludlow and he seemed to get to grips with the course very quickly. He is, of course, up in weight and conceding it all round, but even off a mark of 137, he is fairly well treated when you consider his past history. If he continues his return to old form, then Tony Star could well double up here at 9/2 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Leith Bridge / What A Good Night @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : SkyBet)
Leith Bridge / Tony Star @ 18.25/1 (5/2 & 9/2 : Bet365, BetVictor and Stan James)
East River / What A Good Night @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : SkyBet)
East River / Tony Star @ 19.63/1 (11/4 & 9/2 : Bet365 & Stan James)