Stat of the Day, 26th February 2015
Well, I must admit that I don’t know a great deal about the young (21 is young to me!) jockey Bridget Andrews, but wasn’t she and 12st 5lbs top weight Rascal absolutely tremendous yesterday?
Ignoring the small fact that our money was down, I felt she gave an absolute cracker of a ride; nudging, cajoling and driving where and when necessary to just get Rascal home a length ahead of Special Wells.
It’s just as well she was claiming 7lbs as 5 might not have been enough! And now to the talk of filthy money! We backed Rascal at 3/1, reduced to 2.4/1 via Rule 4 and so that’s what we got paid out at, which was incidentally 174.5% of SP and that really is the key to long term profit.
After an awful first week of the month, we’ve now done enough to guarantee another profitable month for SotD, but I’ve still got three opportunities to top up the bank, starting with Thursday’s…
A lowly Class 6 A/W handicap over 6 furlongs and a 4/1 BOG bet on Arabian Flight, about whom I can tell you…
…that his trainer has a great record here.
Since the start of 2012, backing every one of Mick Appleby’s runners here at Southwell to a £10 level stake would have netted you £1038 profit at an ROI of some 28% from blindly backing his runners and that’s because 21.8% (81 horses) of them have won.
On the All-Weather, the figures are 80/346 (23.1% SR) for 122.3pts (+35.3% ROI) profit and in A/W handicaps, it still looks good at 70 winners from 295 (23.7% SR) for 87.2pts (+29.6% ROI) profit.
In A/W handicaps here at Southwell, Mick Appleby’s runners priced in the 9/4 to 9/1 range have won 43 of 182 (23.6% SR) races for level stakes profits of 70.7pts at an ROI of 38.9%.
Today’s jockey knows his way around too…
Talented rising star Ali Rawlinson has a 16/71 (22.5% SR) record here at Southwell and although his 1.7pts level stake profits only represents a very modest 2.4% yield, it’s still a good starting point for more specific/targeted betting.
In handicap contests, Ali is 15/59 (25.4% SR) for 11.2pts (+18.9% ROI) and more relevantly, when riding horses priced from Evens to 9/2, he is 12/35 (34.3% SR) in handicaps here, producing 11.9pts profit at an ROI of 34%, which is far more to my liking!
The trainer likes to use claiming jockeys…
And on horses priced from 2/1 to 7/1 in handicap contests, Mr Appleby has saddled up 15 winners from the 52 horses (28.9% SR) ridden by a jockey claiming 5lbs. Here at Southwell, the record is 8/20 (40% SR) for 18.8pts (+94% ROI) and when the jockey is Ali Rawlinson, there has been 10 winners from 36 (27.8% SR) and 11pts (+30.6% ROI) profit.
So, when Ali has claimed 5lbs on an Appleby handicapper priced in the 2/1 to 7/1 range here at Southwell, he has won 5 of 16 (31.25% SR) races for profits of 3.9pts (+24.5% ROI), but it seems we should follow the money as those priced from 2/1 to 4/1 are 5/9 (55.6% SR) for 10.9pts (+121.4% ROI).
Arabian Flight drops in class today…
And Mick Appleby’s handicap class droppers are 47/284 (16.6% SR) for 43.8pts (+15.4% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2012. A simple 9/4 to 9/1 (as at the top of the page!) odds filter improves the numbers to 33/148 (22.3% SR) for 68.6pts (+46.4% ROI) profit.
Those runners in the filtered price range are 9/36 (25% SR) for 25pts (+69.4% ROI) here at Southwell, whilst those dropping down from a run at Class 5 level last time out are 13/60 (21.7% SR) for 27.5pts (+45.8% ROI).
There are probably loads of other things I could you, but I wouldn’t want to bore you too much!
Anyway, Arabian Flight is a 3-time course winner and was only beaten by half a length last time out which was 10 days ago over 7 furlongs at Wolverhampton. He was only headed very late in the piece that day, so a drop back in trip might unlock the key to success here for him.
He’s also (as above) dropping down in class, but runs off the same mark of 62 as his last outing, which in turn is just 3lbs higher than his last win.
So, the call for Thursday is a simple 1pt win bet on Arabian Flight at 4/1 BOG. I’ve gone with BetVictor for this one, but you can get the same offer from both Paddy Power and SkyBet, so why not…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS