Double Dutch, 27th February 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 27th February 2015

Yesterday was a poor day for us, all things considered. East River was heavily backed (evens from 11/4!) and looked to have the race at his mercy when leading at the 1 pole. But he idled up front, hung left and opened the door for the 20/1 outsider of the six runners to steam through and win by a length and a quarter, whilst Leith Bridge finished tamely back in 5th place, beaten by nearly 6 lengths.

So, with just pride to play for at Ludlow a little later, we got as far as the 5th of 18 fences, before our interest was ended. Tony Star made a bad error there, stumbled on landing and sent Richard Johnson sideways out of the saddle to his left.

As he hit the ground, What A Good Night cleared the fence and saw Richard on the floor jinked left to avoid him and deposited his own jockey to the ground. You couldn’t make this up!

Thursday’s results were as follows:

East River : 2nd at evens (adv 11/4)
Leith Bridge : u/p at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
What A Good Night : UR at 7/2 (adv 5/2)
Tony Star : UR at 9/2 (adv 9/2)

Results to date:
502 winning selections from 1753 = 28.64%
157 winning bets in 454 days = 34.58%

Stakes: 907.50pts
Returns: 1010.82pts

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P/L : +103.32pts (+11.39% ROI)


Friday nights under lights are regular fixtures at Wolverhampton & Dundalk, so let’s take a back-to-back race from each today…

5.35 Dundalk:

Majestic Timeline is a regular around these parts and he last five runs have all been i handicaps over tonight’s course and distance, where she has finished 22212 and not beaten by more than 1.75 lengths in any of those defeats. She went down by just a head, beaten very late on the in-form and hat-trick completing Your Pal Tal, who was 7lbs well in at the weights that night.

She’s clearly in good nick and a short 3 week break will have recharged the batteries as she goes again in what looks a weaker contest this evening. Majestic Timeline is a 6-time winner over this trip and has won 3 times over course and distance. She always give a good account of herself and I expect her to be there or thereabouts again at 2/1 BOG.

If, however, she does get beat again, then the one most likely to upset her is the 6 yr old Strategic Heights, another consistent C&D performer. he won ocer C&D back in November and his three subsequent runs (all over C&D) have seen him finish third each time. He was also last seen in that race won by You Pal Tal above, when he was one place and 2.5 lengths behind Majestic Timeline.

He’s 5lbs better with her this evening and that alone could well be all that’s needed to get him back amongst the winners. Strategic Heights is neither a mug nor a stranger around this track, having won four times over the course and distance, including winning this race last year and with a better draw than the mare above, is possibly a slightly better option at 3/1 BOG.

I do quite fancy the prospect of us having the first two home here, but time will tell!


5.45 Wolverhampton:

Nouvelle Ere is 2 from 2 since the application of a tongue tie and now arrives here looking for a hat-trick, he was last seen 9 days ago when winning at Kempton under today’s jockey, the very promising 3lb claimer Tom Marquand, who was riding him for the first time day.

We’re taking his stamina to cope with the extra distance on trust, just as we are about his aptitude to tapeta, but he does represent a yard that is going well: Tony Carroll is 16/89 (18% SR) for 36.4pts (+40.9% ROI) in A/W handicaps this year and could well add to that tally with Nouvelle Ere at 11/4 BOG, especially considering that…

…only the 2/1 BOG favourite Gios Last is the only one of his nine rivals who come here in any real form. He’s only had four starts to date and has won both his last two runs: both were on the A/W (where he’s now 2/2) and both were over today’s trip of 1m4f, with his latest effort being a victory over course and distance 11 days ago.

Based on the evidence of his recent form, he’s still improving and conditions look ideal for him here today. he’s up 6lbs for that last win, but his jockey’s 3lb claim take half of the rise away and with that and his previous C&D experience in mind, Gios Last is my preferred runner in this one.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Majestic Timeline / Gios Last @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : BetVictor)
Majestic Timeline / Nouvelle Ere @ 10.25/1 (2/1 & 11/4 : BetVictor)
Strategic Heights / Gios Last @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : SkyBet)
Strategic Heights / Nouvelle Ere @ 14/1 (3/1 & 11/4 : Betfair Sportsbook)

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