Stat of the Day, 27th February 2015
We backed Arabian Flight at 4/1 BOG yesterday and he was well supported to become the 5/2 favourite come race time, but getting that value price was about the only good to come from yesterday’s piece, apart from learning a little more about Bridget Andrews who rode another winner.
Arabian Flight, on the other hand, never really looked like winning and when you see the jockey having to work hard with more than half of a 6f race left to run, you know it’s just not happening.
When asked for an effort, none was forthcoming and our runner eventually finished 7th of 9 runners, beaten by around 8 lengths or so. We’re staying on the A/W today, where I expect a better show in the…
Where I’ve just taken 9/4 BOG about Rich Again and as it’s getting late (currently almost 1.30am…), I’ll quickly tell you why I’ve backed him.
James Bethell isn’t the most famous trainer out there, nor does he have the biggest or best string of horses under his command, bu he does really well with what he’s got. In A/W handicaps since the start of 2010, blindly backing his 112 runners would have seen you collecting winnings on 17 occasions, with the 15.2% strike rate netting you level stakes profits of 40.4pts at an ROI of 36.1%, which are good numbers by anyone’s standards.
More recently and more odds targeted, figures are better. Since the start of 2012, his A/W handicappers priced at 8/1 or shorter are 16/60 (26.7% SR) for 40pts profit (+66.7% ROI), of which Class 4 runners are 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 7.43pts (67.5% SR) and those who ran at today’s 7f trip are 8/21 (38.1% SR) for 39.7pts (+189% ROI).
Ted Durcan is in the saddle…
And his record on the Bethell string is 17 winners from 92 (18.5% SR) and profits of 25.7pts (+27.9% ROI). In A/W handicaps that figure is 10/39 (25.6% SR) for 22.3pts (+57.2% ROI) with all 10 winners coming from the 29 horses (34.5% SR) priced at 8/1 or shorter, generating 32.3pts level stakes profit (+111.4% ROI).
Ted also rides well here…
Since 2009 on the A/W track here with runners sent off in the evens to 8/1 odds range, Ted has 32 winners from 106 (30.2% SR) rides, producing 61.2pts profit (+57.7% ROI) to date.
And the horse?
Not too shabby at all! His record when put into context of the task ahead is excellent and reads (in no particular order!) :
- 7 wins from 29 career races, but 6/12 on the A/W (and 3 places!)
- 5 wins and two third place finishes in his last 7 outings
- a record reading 13311 over 7 furlongs
- 13111 when ridden by Ted Durcan
- 3111 in Class 4 races
- 5 wins and 2 places from 8 races that were 15-30 days after his last outing (29 today)
- 5/9 wearing cheekpieces
- 6/11 on left handed tracks
All of which suggests another big run from the consistent and still-improving Rich Again and I’m happy to put my 1pt win down at 9/4 BOG with Hills. You can also get the same price from SkyBet and the Betfair Sportsbook, so for more details…
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