Stat of the Day, 28th February 2015
As tends to be the case, Rich Again was held up with a view to making a run for the line from about 2 furlongs out and until the race to the 2 pole things were going as planned. Ted Durcan then pressed the button and little happened, then the whip was drawn and not much more happened, to be honest.
It was a disappointing run that saw the 11/4 jt fav (out from our 9/4) eventually finish 5th of 6 runners, beaten by 7.5 lengths.
Saturday is the last selection of the week/month and it would be nice to go on with a winner from the…
A one mile, Class 3 handicap where Charlie Appleby’s Holiday Magic is priced up at 5/1 BOG as he drops in class in a bid to get back on the scoresheet after only being beaten by a little over a length in a very competitive Class 2 handicap here at Lingfield last Saturday.
His trainer, Charlie Appleby…
…has got his horses in fine form of late, notching up 13 winners from 48 runners in the past month and he’s a master of A/W handicaps in his fairly short training career. To date, in this sphere, his runners have won 43 of 136 (31.6% SR) for 28.5pts (+21% ROI) profit, whilst here at Lingfield, that record is 11/33 (33.33% SR) for 10pts (+30.3% ROI).
With his A/W handicappers priced in the 6/4 to 8/1 range, he has had 33 winners from 102 runners (32.3% SR), producing level stakes profits of 43.3pts at an ROi of 42.5%, with runners here at Lingfield boasting a record of 9/24 (37.5% SR) for 15.5pts (+64.6% ROI)
Adam Kirby is our “pilot” today…
…and Adam’s record here at Lingfield in handicap contests since 2001 reads 100 winners from 520 rides (19.2% SR) for profits of 76.2pts (+14.7% ROI) and in races of 6 to 8 furlongs, he is 54/270 (19.4% SR) for 85.3pts (+30.6% ROI).
If we apply a simple odds restriction of 6/4 to 7/1 upon those 6f to 8f runners, we are left with 42 winners from 165 (25.5% SR) and profits of 54.7pts (+33.2% ROI)
And together, they make a great team…
With 47 winners from 140 (33.6% SR) and profits of 39.7pts at an ROI of 28.3%. In handicap company, they are 18/46 (39.1% SR) for 25.9pts (+56.3% ROI) and in handicaps here at Lingfield, 6 of their 11 (54.6% SR) runners have been winners, generating a further 9.9pts profit at an ROI of 90%.
And Holiday Magic’s stats?
Well, he’s 4/8 on the A/W and 4/7 on Polytrack.
He’s also 2/2 at today’s trip and he’s 4/6 when priced at 6/1 or shorter.
His last run was just a week ago when narrowly defeated in a much better race than this, but goes off the same mark again. He has won three of four races that have come when he has had less than a three week between runs, suggesting he needs to be kept busy.
Adam Kirby replaces the young claimer who has been on board Holiday Magic for the last two (losing) runs and looks to pick up where they off when winning here three starts ago.
5/1 BOG looks a decent price about Holiday Magic and there could well be some value in it once the markets get busy towards lunchtime. My 1pt bet has been placed with BetVictor, whilst both Coral (BOG) and Ladbrokes (non-BOG until 9.00am!) offer the same price and it seems to be 9/2 BOG elsewhere. For a more complete idea of the market…
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