Stat of the Day, 2nd March 2015
Unfortunately, we weren’t able to end February on the high of backing a winner as Holiday Magic was just over hauled in side the half furling to be beaten by a head.
Adam Kirby had Holiday Magic to front to win the race from a fair way out and they just failed to hold off the eventual winner, although once passed, the horse did rally and stay on again.
Sent off as the 11/4 favourite, we’d got a cracking price by taking 5/1 early doors, but it just wasn’t to be.
As you know, I don’t put selections up on Sundays, so here’s the first pick of the new month…
A Class 5 handicap hurdle over 3 miles and 0.5 furlongs on currently good to soft (sleet & showers expected) ground, where Lucy Wadham’s 3/1 BOG Aviador is the selection.
And the trainer…
Has been amongst the winners of late, with 6 of her last 25 (24% SR) runners returning victorious. She also has a good record here at Fakenham with 20 winners from her 84 entries (23.8% SR) here since 2008. This has resulted in level stakes profits of 27.5pts at an ROI of 32.8%, whilst in handicap company, the figures are improved to 15/50 (30% SR) for 45pts (+90% ROI) profit.
More recently/relevantly, Lucy’s handicap hurdlers are 5/23 (21.7% SR) for 7.8pts (+33.9% ROI) profit here since the start of 2012 and of those, there were 4 winners from the 12 (33.33%SR) runners sent off at odds of 6/4 to 5/1, resulting in profits of 6.4pts at an ROI of 53.3%.
Aviador was pipped at the post last time out…
…when collared really late on and beaten by just a nose by the re-opposing Flemi Two Toes a week ago at Plumpton over 3m 1.5f. The thought is that Avaidor went a little too early and just couldn’t quite hold on, but this race is a furlong shorter and he meets his victor 7lbs better off this time, so that form could easily be reversed today.
Plus, the history books tells me that since 2009, handicap hurdlers aged 5 and over with at least two runs under the belts in the last 3 months (ie race fit), who now take a drop in trip within seven days of their last run, where they either won or were beaten by less than two lengths, went on to win 89 of 243 races (36.6% SR) for level stakes profits of 74.2pts (+30.5% ROI) when sent off in the Evens to 11/2 price band.
He’s now 10lbs lower than his last winning mark…
…of 108, achieved at Sandown four years and nine defeats ago. After that win, he failed to complete three races and was unplaced in four more, before taking a 42-week break from the track. He then re-appeared in mid-January looking more like his old self in finishing 3rd here at Fakenham, before moving on to be narrowly beaten last time out.
The precedent here is that since 2008, Lucy Wadham’s jumpers who were running at a lower mark than their last win, which was at least five defeats ago then won 11 of 50 (22% SR) for 31.3pts (+62.6% ROI).
Aviador ran really well last time out and a repeat of that run, allied to the swing in weight and the drop in trip must put him in with a really good shout of landing this race today. I certainly hope so, because I’ve just backed him at 3/1 BOG with Bet365, but to see all the available odds…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS