Stat of the Day, 3rd March 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 3rd March 2015

You had to feel a little sorry for 10lb claimer Luke Ingram at Fakenham yesterday. He was giving our pick Aviador a nice ride, keeping the horse well in contention for a decent finish, when he lost his irons just 4 flights from home. He battled manfully to get his feet back in them, but struggled to do so quickly enough.

But he managed to bump along towards the next flight, still keeping his mount working and just still with a chance when upon landing 3 out, he had nothing to hold him in place and onto his backside he went.

Our 3/1 shot had been backed in to become the 2/1 favourite by the off, so there was the small comfort for the traders amongst you, but for me it was a dropped point. Tuesday’s race is the…

4.20 Newcastle:

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A race almost chosen by default, if I’m honest. The week before Cheltenham is generally a difficult one with pretty poor quality of racing on offer. There’s also not many of my stat-based selections worthy of putting up as bets either because of their lack of competitiveness or just a case of not getting the right prices.

My selection, however, has a very good chance (in my opinion, of course!) of winning at a price where we can stake make a shilling or two and so I’ve gone with the 3/1 BOG shot Ginger Jack.

He’s a progressive sort over hurdles, having made the frame in each of three efforts to date after a useful career on the level where he won seven of his forty four races.

Ginger Jack is by Refuse To Bend, whose progeny have performed well over hurdles in recent years winning 39 of 348 hurdles contests (11/2% SR) producing level stakes profits of 84.6pts at an ROI of 24.4%. Those sent off in the Evens to 10/1 odds range are 31/140 (22.1% SR) for 44.2pts at an ROI of 31.6%.

He is trained by Keith Dalgleish, a trainer better known for his exploits on level ground (and A/W in particular), but he does have a useful small string of National Hunt horses and NH competition since the start of 2103, 15 of his 88 (17% SR) runners in this code have been winners, generating a modest profit of 5.9pts at an ROI of 6.7%.

In handicap contests, his record is 11 winners from 43 (25.6% SR) for 24pts (+55.9% ROI) profit and those results include a 0/13 record with horses priced above 10/1, horses we’d not normally consider for SotD anyway!

Removing the beaten longshots leaves us with an excellent return of 11 winners from 30 (36.7% SR) for level stakes profits of 37pts (+123.4% ROI) and overall he is 3/5 for 9.35 pts here at Newcastle (3/3 for 11.35pts in handicaps)

Ginger Jack will be ridden by Wilson Renwick today, a jockey whose own record here at Newcastle over hurdles in the last couple of years features 7 winners from 28 (25% SR) for profits of 7.25 pts at an ROI of 25.9pts, which includes figures of 7/12 (58.3% SR) for 23.25pts (+193.4% ROI) when sent off at odds of 6/1 or shorter and he was 4 from 6 last season.

Today represents a drop in class for Ginger Jack, as he aims to continue his improvement and go one better than his runner-up position at Musselburgh 12 days ago and I fully expect him to be there or thereabouts and I also think there’s still a bit of juice in the 3/1 BOG I’ve just taken with Coral.

A fuller market view is, of course, available when you…

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Here is today’s racecard.

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