Stat of the Day, 4th March 2015
A bittersweet day yesterday, I’m afraid. Ginger Jack was held up for a run that he didn’t seem to have in him and he was well beaten by the best part of 45 lengths, as he came home 5th of the 8 runners, despite being sent off as the 5/2 favourite.
The good news, I suppose is that by taking 3/1 we beat the book and also there is some consolation in the fact that the stats also pointed to a 7/2 Dalgleish/Renwick winner later on the same card.
Those of you who got on it, well done, these things do happen and I just take it as a revalidation of the stat work.
However, for SotD, it’s another point lost, so we’ll aim to recoup quickly in Wednesday’s…
And the 5/2 BOG rated Skidby Mill, about whom I can tell you that…
…his trainer, Laura Mongan…
…has saddled up 28 winners from 251 A/W handicappers since the start of 2009, with the 11.2% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 57.3pts at Betfair SP, which represents a 22.8% return on investments). For recently joined subscribers, I use betfair SP in my write-ups, as they’re the nearest approximation I have to the BOG prices.
This 28/251 record can be broken down in a multitude of ways, but with today’s race in mind, here’s a couple of pointers :
at Lingfield : 16/11 (14.4% SR) for 30.1pts (+27.2% ROI)
over 1 mile : 6/53 *11.3% SR) for 11.7pts (+22.1% ROI)
priced at 10/1 or shorter : 24/124 (19.4% SR) for 77.3pts (+62.4% ROI)
In fact there are plenty of ways of interpreting the main stat, but you could consider that since the start of 2013, Laura’s A/W handicappers priced at 8/1 or shorter over trips of 1m to 1m2f here at Lingfield are 6/18 (33.3% SR) for 36pts (+200% ROI) profit.
…today’s jockey Megan Nicholls…
…is a very useful amateur jockey to have on board in this type of restricted race, as since the start of last year, her record in conditional/amateur races reads as 8 winners from 33 (24.2% SR) for 6.2pts (+18.8% RO) profit and if we discard the five losing longshot no-hopers she has ridden in such contests, we are left with a record of 8/18 (28.6% SR) for 1.2 pts (+40% ROI) on those horses priced at 10/1 or shorter.
…and the horse, himself?
Skidby Mill is a dual course and distance winner, who has finished third on each of his last two visits here. Both were over 7 furlongs when things possibly happened a little too quickly for him, but in between those two efforts, he was a winner at Kempton over today’s trip.
Despite the unsuitable trip, he was only beaten by a neck and a head last time out and now runs off the same mark over his seemingly preferred 1 mile trip. And it should be noted that he’s still running off a mark a pound lower than a course and distance win here last year.
We’re not getting rich off the back of this one today, but I’d still expect a good run for my money from a 1pt win bet at 5/2 BOG on Skidby Mill, a bet I’ve placed with Bet365, but Paddy Power are currently offering the same price, whilst the rest of the bookies’ odds can be seen (once available) if you…
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