Double Dutch, 4th March 2015
Well, Tuesday was pretty poor by any standards, I’m afraid.
Race 1 started with a rare off day for A/W maestros Rae Guest and Mick Appleby for whom Miniskirt and Westminster could only finish 4th & 5th respectively and with Mick’s other runner in the race finishing third, it wasn’t the best of results for him.
In fact his day sort of mirrored mine, as he unusually went 0/5 across the card, when he’d normally pick up a winner or two.
This meant that the later race at Newcastle was just a face-saving exercise for me, but Jac The Legend’s defeat summed up my afternoon quite succinctly.
He was the runner-up, which isn’t a bad result, but he was beaten by a 14/1 shot, for whom I’d considered the only redeeming feature was the booking of track specialist James Reveley who took his 5-year tally in Newcastle handicap chases to 20/70! That’s a booking to keep an eye on.
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Westminster : u/p at 15/8 (adv 7/4)
Miniskirt : u/p at 10/3 (adv 11/4)
Jac The Legend : 2nd at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
Blue Kascade : PU at 5/2 (adv 18/5)
Results to date:
505 winning selections from 1767 = 28.58%
159 winning bets in 458 days = 34.72%
P/L : +104.40pts (+11.40% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
After a couple of forgettable days, I could do with a winner (preferably two!) from the following contests on Wednesday…
Henri de Boistron represents the powerful Brennan/George alliance here and will be seeking to follow up a first win over fences achieved at the third time of asking at Leicester three weeks ago. He had to be tough and resolute that day and stayed on nicely to lead late on, getting home by just a neck.
He’s only 5yrs old, with very few miles on the clock and is entitled/expected to continue his improvement over fences and it’s worth noting that he had Artifice Sivola five lengths behind him last time out, but the latter has since won by 20 lengths at Fakenham as recently as Monday. You can currently get 15/8 BOG about Henri de Boistron also winning again.
15/8 BOG is also the price of his expected biggest rival Cousin Guillaume, who ran well despite falling whilst in contention at the last at Musselburgh last time out. That was two months ago, so he’s had plenty of time to recover and that was only his second effort over fences, having gone well for most of his debut, before tiring in the closing stages to finish third at Newcastle.
That was over 2m4f, though and he showed that this shorter trip was more suitable in that run at Musselburgh LTO. He has since changed hands and it is hoped that new handler Donald MCCain will be able to get a bit more out of him here, as he generally tends to!
I backed Nouvelle Ere for Stat of the Day, when he last ran and won here over a mile a fortnight ago and although he was narrowly beaten at Wolverhampton last time out, that was his first crack at 1m4f and was only half a length behind the winner Gios Last (who I’d nominated for this DD blog!). Prior to the win at Kempton, he had won over today’s 1m2f at Chelmsford.
That puts his form this year at 112 and if you consider he’s actually been eased a pound for today’s race, he has to be respected and considered the likeliest winner here at what looks a value-laden 11/4 BOG on offer from BetVictor.
The one I’ll take as a backup is a bit of a punt on paper with the 8/1 BOG selection of Thirtypointstothree, who ran well at Wolverhampton last time out, beaten by only half a length off today’s mark of 52. He’ll be assisted by the booking of 7lb claimer Aaron Jones today. Aaron has ridden the horse twice in the past, so he’s familiar with him and the weight claim puts them right down towards the foot of the weights, which might be all important in a poor-looking contest.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Henri de Boistron / Nouvelle Ere @ 9.78/1 (15/8 & 11/4 : betVictor)
Henri de Boistron / Thirtypointstothree @ 24.88/1 (15/8 & 8/1 : Stan James)
Cousin Guillaume / Nouvelle Ere @ 9.78/1 (15/8 & 11/4 : betVictor)
Cousin Guillaume / Thirtypointstothree @ 26/1 (2/1 & 8/1 : Stan James)