Stat of the Day, 5th March 2015
Skidby Mill was really well backed on Wednesday, eventually going off as the 7/4 favourite, meaning that our advised 5/2 BOG was worth almost 143% of SP, but beating the market was as good as it gets, as the horse went on to record a third place finish for the third time in four runs and the fourth time from 6 runs this year (353313).
I thought Megan Nicholls rode him well, tacking him over from the car park draw, to sit handily placed for a challenge and they were always in contention until the furlong pole. When push came to shove, he couldn’t go with the eventual runner-up who got first run and they were both outflanked by the winner who finished like a train.
More A/W action for Thursday (pre-Cheltenham jumps meetings tend to be dire) as we tackle the…
Where I’ve taken 11/4 BOG for Ollie Pears’ 6yr old gelding Lean On Pete for this Class 5 Apprentices handicap over 1m3f.
Our selection is at the top of the weights before any rider claims are considered, although Robert Dodsworth’s 5lb claim bring him into the middle of the weights, but he is (at 72) the top rated horse on display and highly likely to be towards the head of the market for this contest.
However, since the start of 2010 in Southwell A/W Class 5/6 handicap races, top (OR) rated males aged 3 to 6 who last ran in a handicap contest and are now in the top two of the market, have won 111 of 307 (36.2% SR) races for level stakes profits of 61.5pts at an ROI of 20%.
From which, we see that those priced up at Evens to 6/1 won 93 of 275 (33.8% SR) for 64.6pts (+23.5% ROI), whilst Class 5 runners won 43 of 100 (43% SR) for 45.8pts (+45.8% ROI).
Class 5 runners priced at evens to 6/1 have been successful on 35 of 83 occasions (42.2% SR) for 49.2pts (+59.3% ROI) profit.
As this is an apprentices’ handicap, it’s worth reminding ourselves, that although the sample size is fairly small, Ollie Pears’ runners have done well in these races in the past, winning 7 of 39 (18% SR) since 2009, recording profits of 10.6pts at an ROI of 27.2%.
6 of the 7 winners came from the 14 A/W runners (42.9% SR) and generated a huge 31.4pts profit at an ROI of 224.2% with those priced at 5/1 or shorter winning 4 of 6 (66.7% SR) for 16pts (+266.7% ROI). As I said, it’s a small sample size, but not one to ignore.
Lean On Pete is a former course and distance winner who has won 5 of his 23 races in his grade. He last won over course and distance almost a year ago off today’s mark of 72 and was only beaten by half a length when attempting to follow up two weeks later off 75. Now back at that same winning mark, he should be very competitive today.
And if Ollie Pears was to make any prize money today, then this is his only shot at it, as Lean On Pete is his sole representative anywhere in the country. Mind you over the last couple of years, he’s done pretty well on days like this and since New Year’s Day 2013, the days when he’s only had one runner, he has been successful on 20 of 152 (13.2%SR) occasions, rewarding his followers with profits of 193.7pts at staggering ROI of 127.5%!
When his solo runners ran in handicaps they were 15/109 (13.8% SR) for 119.1pts (+109.3% ROI), whilst those priced at 2/1 to 9/1 won 12 of 74 (16.2% SR) for 10.2pts (+13.8% ROI) profit with Class 5 runners having a record reading 5/30 (16.7% SR) for 20.1pts (+67.1% ROI).
Lean On Pete showed us as recently as last Friday that he’s in decent nick with a staying-on 2 length defeat at Wolverhampton over 1m 1.5f, suggesting the extra 300 yards or so should benefit him here.
Lean On Pete is, therefore, today’s selection and my 1pt win bet is available at 11/4 BOG with BetVictor, Paddy Power, SkyBet & Hills, so you can take your pick after you…
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