Stat of the Day, 6th March 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 6th March 2015

For the second race in a row inside the last week, Lean On Pete let a rival assume a fairly easy and commanding lead and was unable to reel them in, finishing third and beaten by a couple of lengths or so on both occasions. Clearly the lessons from last time out at Wolverhampton weren’t taken on board and the tactics were all wrong.

I’ve learned my lesson, though and I’ll not be rushing to back this one again in a hurry (which means, he’s nailed on to bolt up!). So, that’s another point dropped and we now turn our attentions to the turf for the…

2.20 Sandown:

Where the call is a 7/2 BOG bet on Smart Catch in this 2m 0.5f  Class 4 Handicap Hurdle for Amateur Military Riders (don’t let the riders put you off, more later!)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Let’s start with the trainer…

Tony Carroll whose record in NH handicaps since the start of 2010 when using the services of a 3lb claimer reads 34 winners from 224 (15.2% SR) for 64.7pts (+28.9% ROI) profit.

And since the start of 2011, his hurdlers fitting the above criteria who were sent off at odds of 5/2 to 9/1 won 13 of 57 (22.8% SR) for 46.6pts (+81.8% ROI).

And now, that 3lb claiming jockey…

Jody Sole. It often pays in these amateur races to find the best jockey (as we saw when Tom Marquand beat our runner on Thursday) and Jody Sole has to be one of, if not the best in this race. He has won 8 of his 32 rides here at Sandown and in the last 4 years has a record of 7 wins from 15 starts (46.7% SR) for profits of 6pts (+40% ROI).

His rides often attract the “right” money and when he has ridden horses priced at 9/2 or shorter here, he has 7 wins and 3 places from 10 efforts (1223111111), phenomenal 70% strike rate and a 110% ROI achieved via 11pts profits, including riding the winner of this race last year.

And the horse…

Smart Catch comes here in good form. He last ran 7 days ago at Doncaster where he strung out a very competitive field over 2m 3.5f on soft ground. He was 4.5 lengths clear of his nearest rival and this sparks interest for the following reasons…

  1. Since 2009, Tony Carroll’s handicap hurdlers who were last time out winners in the prevous 30 days won again on 13 of 45 (28.9% SR) occasions, producing level stakes profits of 27.6pts at an ROI of 61.4% and since 2011, those priced at 8/1 or shorter are 9/22 (40.9% SR) for 12.7pts (+57.9% ROI).
  2. Since the start of 2012, male handicap hurdlers who won by 4 lengths or more in a handicap hurdle last time out (within the previous 2 months) are 212/820 (25.9% SR) for profits of 184.5pts (+22.5% ROI), whilst those priced below 12/1 have won 179 of 681 (26.3% SR) races for 188.5pts (+27.7% ROI)
  3. And handicap hurdlers who were last time out winners in the past 7 days and had also ran at least one other race in the previous 3 months and then turned back out at odds of 6/4 to 6/1 at the same trip or down in trip, won again on 85 of 282 (30.1% SR) for 64.1pts (+22.9% ROI) profit, but trust me, it’s really not as complicated as it looks in print!

So, plenty to consider there and the figures do seem to be pointing in the way of an SotD win here via a 1pt win bet on Smart Catch at 7/2 BOG with Boylesports. If you don’t have an account with them, then Coral are also offering 7/2 BOG, whilst 100/30 is widely available and acceptable, as you’ll see when you…

…click here for the latest betting on the 2.20 Sandown

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.


Here is today’s racecard.

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