In today’s post, we really start ramping up the Cheltenham Festival output. First, I’ll show you my full unfettered Cheltenham 2015 ante post portfolio, warts and all. Second, a quick word about a brilliant statfest book written by my good mate. And finally, how about a free betting bank for the week? I’ll show you how. Oh, and there’s early news on a special Cheltenham Festival Tipping Competition 🙂
OK, so how’s your portfolio looking at this stage? As the five day declarations trickle through this week (hint, Gold subscribers can get started shortlisting and checking things like the likely pace in the races, already), some bets discover their fate as they fail to make the cut… or worse, are entered in a different race.
Mercifully, I’ve been quite a bit smarter than normal in that regard this year, and backed horses ‘to win any race’ where I’m not sure of their target; or waited for Non-Runner No Bet, so I get my cash back if they don’t line up.
Below is a list of the races, horses, and prices within my ante-post portfolio. If you’re that interested, you can click the link below that to see my stake, potential return, and what prices they are now.
|10-Mar||7||Novices’ Hcap Ch||Horizontal Speed||20|
|11-Mar||3||Coral Cup||Tiger Roll||25|
|11-Mar||4||Champion Chase||Champagne Fever||16|
|11-Mar||4||Champion Chase||Johns Spirit||33|
|11-Mar||5||Cross Country||Ipsos Du Berlais||16|
|11-Mar||5||Cross Country||Ipsos Du Berlais||16|
|11-Mar||6||Fred Winter||Thunder Zone||20|
|12-Mar||2||Pertemps Final||Dara Tango||16|
|12-Mar||4||World Hurdle||Blue Fashion||20|
|12-Mar||4||World Hurdle||Blue Fashion||40|
|12-Mar||4||World Hurdle||Beat That||12|
|13-Mar||1||Triumph Hurdle||Petite Parisienne||10|
|13-Mar||4||Gold Cup||Road To Riches||8|
|13-Mar||4||Gold Cup||Sam Winner||33|
|13-Mar||4||Gold Cup||Al Ferof||33|
|13-Mar||4||Gold Cup||Lord Windermere||16|
|13-Mar||4||Gold Cup||Many Clouds||92.35|
|13-Mar||4||Gold Cup||Carlingford Lough||74.89|
|13-Mar||5||Foxhunters||Paint The Clouds||8|
|13-Mar||5||Foxhunters||Paint The Clouds||5|
Here’s a link to a page with the full spreadsheet on it, which shows the ones I like the most. It’s actually the ‘cheapest’ portfolio I’ve had for over a decade, as the Festival is now more a cerebral challenge and a sporting olympiad to be enjoyed rather than fretting on over-stretching my bankroll. Obviously, that’s a personal view and others will see it differently. Naturally, I have no problem at all with that. 🙂
There are obviously some trophy prices on there, like the two second season chasers from last year’s RSA Chase field. They’re only for small money, but I’d be thrilled if Many Clouds could win, for his connections as much as for my own bragging rights.
Elsewhere, and I hitched my allegiance to the Faugheen cart before most (but after a fair few too!). He’s my joint biggest bet this year – and my smallest ‘biggest’ bet for almost ten years – along with Paint The Clouds in the Foxhunters. I really like this horse: he’s got a Gold Cup-winning jockey on his back, races prominently, and is a winning machine.
Lots of speculatives and value plays (in the main) elsewhere means I’m pretty happy with the portfolio. But I don’t need to tell you that what looks appetizing on the menu may turn one’s stomach when actually served up…!
Time will tell, as it unwaveringly does…
Cheltenham Festival Statistical Analysis
Now, if you’re planning a cramming session this weekend, then allow me to point you in the direction of my old mucker Gavin Priestley’s excellent statorama analysis of Le Fez. It’s 78 pages long, and an easy/riveting read. (Indeed, I’ve just noted he included Paint The Clouds in his ante-post three!)
It’s a physical (i.e. printed) book that will be sent same day, and I’m sure Gavin will provide a pdf version if you ask him nicely! So you can get stuck straight into the data goodness. As well as stats, it’s got key prep races, trainer records, jockey records… In fact, here’s the contents page.
It’ll set you back less than £15 (a penny less, to be precise), and that includes postage and packing for the physical book.
Oh yes, I should have said, he’s down to his last 25 now, so they’ll probably sell out soon enough (though you’ll still be able to get a digital version).
Free Cheltenham Festival Bets
OK, so what about betting bank for next week? In case you don’t know, the Festival is THE biggest bookmaker concession jamboree of the year. It is an event where bookie money is given away – normally on an invisible rubber band, it should be said – in the run up to Tuesday, and is progressively less liberally sprinkled as the week wears on.
So, how to play it? Well that does depend on a) the number of accounts you have, and b) the number of accounts you want to have. If you have only a handful, and you’re receptive to the idea of a(n almost) guaranteed betting bank, then try these.
There are numerous Cheltenham Festival Free Bets offers where long odds-on shots are being offered at odds against, with the profits above the ‘actual’ odds paid in free bets (or, in some cases, cash). That’s fine though, because after all, we’re talking about a betting fund for the week. Following the instructions below, you can turn £30 into £150. That’s £120 in a combination of cash and free bets, backing events at 2/5 or shorter!
Obviously, if you already have some of the accounts, you can still get free bets/money from the other offers. Here’s how:
£10 at 3/1 Willie Mullins to have a Day 1 winner (actual odds 1/20 – he has Douvan, Un De Sceaux, Faugheen, and Annie Power amongst others)
This bet pays out £10.50 cash and £29.50 in free bets
Always check the terms, and make sure to follow the instructions after clicking the banner above (use promo code WILLIE3)
£5 at 7/1 Ruby Walsh to ride a Day 1 winner (he has all of those strongly fancied Mullins horses above amongst others)
This bet pays out £5.25 cash and £34.75 in free bets
Always check the terms, and make sure to follow the instructions after clicking the banner above (Register, Go to “My Account” > “Bonus” section & enter RUBY7, Place FIRST bet on Ruby Ride a Winner Day 1)
£5 at 5/1 Ruby Walsh to ride ANY winner at the Cheltenham Festival 2015 (erm…)
This bet pays out £30 ALL in cash 🙂
Always check the terms, and make sure to follow the instructions after clicking the banner above (Register, Deposit, 5/1 offer is on homepage)
£10 at 3/1 Ruby Walsh to be top jockey (actual odds 2/5) AND money back as a free bet if he isn’t!
This bet pays out £14 cash and £26 in free bets
Always check the terms, and make sure to follow the instructions after clicking the banner above (Register, Deposit, Place FIRST bet on Ruby to be top jockey)
If you haven’t got accounts with these guys, for maybe half an hour of your time and a ‘risk’ of £20 (Offer 4 refunds stake as free bet even if it loses!) you could take your stakes back out and have a punting war chest of £120! Alternatively, you could take all the cash (£29.75 profit) and still have £90.25 in free bets.
I’ll be honest, if you don’t have those accounts, I simply do not know why you wouldn’t do this!
Let’s get some quids in the bank to start the week!!!
And finally, I’ve been asked to offer a Tipping Competition for the Cheltenham Festival. That sounds like a lot of fun, so I’m checking with my techie that we can do this in the existing Tipping League (I’m pretty sure we can).
If we can, I’ll be running the comp, and I’ve got a couple of really awesome prizes. More on that on Monday, once I’ve got the techie bits and bobs sorted.
That’s all for today… I can hardly wait for next week 😀