Double Dutch, 7th March 2015
Lessons In Milan was a fairly comfortable six lengths winner at our advised 9/4 odds at Sandow yesterday, whilst AP’s mount Ustica was pulled up before the last.
This meant we’d a a nice stake for race 2, up at Ayr, but unfortunately And The Man failed to complete again. He fell 4 out, whilst looking like he had every chance. This left our hopes with Grate Fella and he led until the last fence, but once headed, quickly faded out of contention.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Lessons In Milan : WON at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
Ustica : PU at 4/1 (adv 11/2)
Grate Fella : u/p at 5/1 (adv 9/2)
And The Man : fell at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
507 winning selections from 1779 = 28.50%
159 winning bets in 461 days = 34.49%
P/L : +98.40pts (+10.68% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Saturday is my last piece of the week and I’d like to take my bottom line back above 100pts with these…
Aniknam was an easy 10 lengths winner on his debut in a bumper at Hexham a year ago in a performance deemed good enough by connections to enter him into a Grade 1 contest at Punchestown, where he wasn’t disgraced in finishing 8th of 12 runners. His hurdling debut then resulted in a heavy ground win at Hexham, but on his fourth and latest start, he was beaten into third place on his first attempt at today’s trip at Wetherby.
Initially it was felt that he hadn’t run well enough, but the winner that day has since won again by 25 lengths and then ran to within 4 lengths of a winner in a Listed event off a mark of 140. Aniknam‘s opening mark here of just 116 should, therefore be a very workable figure and he’s rated an 11/4 BOG chance with Coral to take his career tally to 3 from 5.
He will, however, have to beat Sir Vinski to do that and that won’t be an easy proposition. The formidable Harding / Richards combination will expect to land this one with a horse that has also won twice from four starts. A bumper win on debut was followed by a third place and a win in two maiden hurdles, with the win coming at today’s trip on heavy ground, so no stamina concerns here.
Sir Vinski‘s fourth and latest run was his own handicap debut at a higher grade than this and he ran well enough to finish 5th of 10 runners, beaten by 12 lengths behind Aigle de la See and 5 lengths behind Derrintogher Bliss, both of whom have won since and several of his rivals from that run in a Grade 3 contest (2.00 Sandown) this afternoon.
As a course and distance winner dropping in class, Sir Vinski looks well treated and certainly warrants to be the 15/8 BOG (Betbright) favourite here and will need to be respected.
Dan Skelton has been very successful with his handicap runners during his short training career and will look to add another winner here in the shape of the 15/8 BOG favourite Mister Grez, a horse who despite running from 14lbs out of the handicap got to within 9 lengths of Sire de Grugy over this course and distance a fortnight ago.
Then five days later, he turned over a David Pipe hotpot on heavy ground at Taunton and a repeat of either of those runs should be enough here today. He’s in great form, having won 3 of his last five starts and doesn’t mind a bit of cut in the ground, which you generally get here at Chepstow.
If Mister Grez fluffs his lines, however, then I’d expect the talented and very consistent Whispering Harry to be waiting to pick up the pieces. In the last 14 months, his worst result in 11 runs was a 4th place at Uttoxeter last October coming off a break of 230 days, so some excuses there. He has won 5 of the other 10 races, making the frame in the five losing runs too!
He was only denied a hat-trick at Taunton last time out after a mistake 2 from out, but still stayed on 2nd place and only beaten by 3 lengths. At 7/2 BOG, Whispering Harry looks an excellent back up plan.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Sir Vinski / Mister Grez @ 7.63/1 (15/8 & 2/1 : Betway)
Sir Vinski / Whispering Harry @ 10.92/1 (7/4 & 10/3 : bet365)
Aniknam / Mister Grez @ 9.78/1 (11/4 & 15/8 : Coral)
Aniknam / Whispering Harry @ 14.75/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : BetVictor)