Stat of the Day, 7th March 2015
I didn’t know whether to laugh, cry of just feel sorry for the jockey yesterday, as Smart Catch finished 6th of 9, beaten by some 14 lengths.
That alone doesn’t tell the whole story, nor will, but he’s an edited version. He was clear 2 out despite being hampered 3 out. He still led over the last, before suddenly taking on the impression of a car that had run out of petrol.
He emptied out very quickly and despite the best efforts of Jody Sole to cajole him home (and he did try hard), they were swamped and eventually well beaten. He wasn’t 14 lengths worse than the winner, but the results will say he was.
He had run like the 15/8 favourite he’d gone off as for much of the race, before the off switch was pulled, up to which point out 7/2 (186.7% of SP) was looking good.
I could do with ending my mini-slump today, via the…
Where Chris Gordon’s Ballyheigue Bay is priced at 5/1 BOG for this Class 3 handicap chase over 3m 0.5f , which comes just under a month after his win at Kempton that took his short chasing career record to 131.
1. Chris Gordon has been profitable to back with his jumpers over recent years and since the start of 2011, his runners have won 81 of 732 races (11.1% SR) for 135pts profit at an ROI of 18.5%, figures I will now filter down as follows…
Handicappers : 71/596 (11.9% SR) for 181.3pts (+30.4% ROI),
Hcps over 2m4f to 3m3f : 52/377 (13.8% SR) for 223.5pts (+59.3% ROI)
Hcps / 2m4f to 3m3f / 5/2 to 8/1 : 33/160 (20.6% SR) for 45.9pts (+28.7% ROI)
Of which, chasers are 15/71 (21.1% SR) for 17.7pts at an ROI of 24.9%
2. Since 2008, Chris’ handicap chasers who were winners last time out within 30 days of running again, went on to win 9 of 34 (26.5% SR) follow-up tuns, producing profits of 10.9pts (+32.1% ROI), whilst those priced at 5/2 to7/1 are 8/20 (40% SR) for 22.8pts (+113.9% ROI).
3. More generally, since the start of 2010, male Class 3/4 runners aged 6 to 9 who won a handicap chase by 2 to 10 lengths last time out in the previous 11-150 days have a decent record. The logic here is that they’re in winning form, but didn’t win by too far to get hammered by the assessors. They’ve had a short break, but are still race fit and often still have something in hand.
The numbers behind this theory show 203 winners from 852 runners (23.8% SR) and profits of 228.2pts (+26.8% ROI), with those now running in a handicap chase priced at evens to 13/2 winning again on 152 of 584 occasions (26% SR) for 74.6pts (+12.8% ROI) profit.
Ballyheigue Bay has looked a far better horse in his three starts over fences (131 to date) than he was over hurdles and I expect another bold show from him today. I’m on at 5/1 BOG with Hills, but you can take your pick of at least 8 firms offering the same price, as seen when you…
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