Double Dutch, 9th March 2015
For a long time, Saturday looked like being a good day for us, starting with a 1-2 finish up at Ayr. Sir Vinski led Aniknam home by four lengths and with their nearest challenger a good 10 lengths further back, it was a decent result to get a winner 2/1 and the bonus of a £6.20 forecast.
We had a couple of hours to wait until the well-backed Mister Grez appeared at Chepstow and he ran a pretty good race, if truth be told. Unfortunately, Oscar Hill was able to defy top weight and make all, seeing our runner off by 8 lengths in the end.
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Sir Vinski : WON at 2/1 (adv 15/8)
Aniknam : 2nd at 2/1 (adv 11/4)
The forecast/exacta was worth 5.2/1 here
Mister Grez : 2nd at 13/8 (adv 2/1)
Whispering Harry : u/p at 9/4 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
508 winning selections from 1783 = 28.49%
159 winning bets in 462 days = 34.42%
P/L : +96.40pts (+10.44% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Cheltenham is almost upon, but first we’ve to try to find a couple of winners on a typical Mediocre March Monday (I doubt racing’s marketing people will want to borrow that slogan).
The best NH horses are either injured or going to Cheltenham, so with no A/W racing at all to look at, we’re stuck with those deemed not good enough for Chelts today…
Rear Admiral has been placed twice from three efforts over fences to date and looked set to win at Musselburgh last time out, but for a tired error at the last which contributed to a 1.5 length defeat to the progressive hat-trick completing Present Lodger. His tendency to jump left caused the problem last time out and the switch to a left handed track and a drop in trip should keep him in the hunt at 13/8 BOG.
The biggest danger should come from the 7/2 BOG Midnight Chorister. This son of Midnight Legend was a winner on his chasing debut and ran well at Leicester last time out, finishing third despite conceding plenty of weight all round.
He had Artifice Sivola almost two lengths behind him in fourth place that day and the latter’s subsequent 20 length victory at Fakenham last Monday was pretty interesting. This looks a weaker affair than his last effort and if he can repeat that same level of performance today, then he could well be the one.
Sportsreport has finished 131 in his last three outings over fences and at 15/8 BOG, looks the likeliest to succeed here today. He’s up 9lbs for his latest, facile 10L victory, but his jockey will take a useful 3lbs of that rise off his back. And despite this being his 12th start over fences, I’m not entirely convinced that there isn’t more to come from this horse.
The truth is that he hasn’t had much to beat of late and today’s tougher challenge might well bring about a little more improvement from Sportsreport, which he might need if Noble Friend responds favourably the first-time fitting of a hood. He ran very creditably to finish third and over course and distance six weeks ago off a mark some 8lbs higher than today.
He has since competed in a much stringer event at Sandown and although fairly well beaten that day, a couple of late errors made the defeat look worse than it actually was and today’s drop in class might be all that’s needed for a debut win at 3/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Rear Admiral / Sportsreport @ 6.19/1 (6/4 & 15/8 : Bet Victor & Hills)
Rear Admiral / Noble Friend @ 9.50/1 (13/8 & 3/1 : Paddy Power)
Midnight Chorister / Sportsreport @ 11.94/1 (7/2 & 15/8 : Hills & SkyBet)
Midnight Chorister / Noble Friend @ 15.88/1 (7/2 & 11/4 : Boylesports, Hills & SkyBet)