Stat of the Day, 10th March 2015
I managed to get it right and wrong at the same time yesterday! If you cast your mind back, I wrote the following about trainer Brian Barr…
“Over the last three years his record in NH handicaps with runners priced below 12/1 is 7 winners from 28 (25% SR) for 15.2pts (+54.2% ROI) level stakes profits, whilst those sent off shorter than 7/1 are 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 11.6pts (+68.1% ROI), suggesting that Brian is worth following in the usual SotD range of prices.”
He had two such runners at Taunton, as Follow The Tracks was eased down late on for an 18 lengths victory at 5/2 and Green du Ciel was outpaced late on to finish 4th at 3/1. The way the last week or so has gone, there are no prizes for guessing which one I’d selected at 11/2.
We did, at least, beat the market and I know many of you backed Brian’s winner too, but it’s scant consolation and it’s another point for me to recover. Today is day 1 of Cheltenham’s annual jamboree and in time-honoured SotD fashion, I’ll give it a wide berth to focus on the…
Where a 7 furlong, Class 6 handicap on the A/W worth £3234 to the winner couldn’t really be any further removed from the slightly higher profile jumps meeting also taking place today!
However, every race, no matter how lowly, has a winner and I think that the 3/1 BOG Hellbender stands a good chance of breaking his (and mine!) recent drought.
1. His trainer….
Shaun Harris has a creditable record in A/W handicaps over the past few years with 33 winners from 353 runners (9.4% SR) bringing in 89.2pts (+25.2% ROI) profits in the process, but it is at this lower/poorer end of the scale where he fares best and his class 6 runners priced at evens to 8/1 have won 18 of 78 (23.1% SR) races in that time, yielding 39.3pts profit at an ROI of 50.3%.
From that group of 78 runners there has been 12 winners from those competing over trips of 7 furlongs or shorter with this resultant 22.6% strike rate producing level stakes profits of 26.2pts (+49.4% ROI).
2. His jockey…
David Probert has won 233 of his 2024 A/W races since the start of 2009, with that 11.5% strike rate generating profits of 197.1pts at a reasonable 9.7% ROI from totally blind betting.
In Class 5 to 7 handicaps on runners priced at 5/4 to 9/2, he has ridden 55 winners from 190 attempts (29% SR) recording 47.3pts (+24.9% ROI) profits in the process with most success coming over the shorter trips of 5 to 7 furlongs as above, where David’s record reads 32/99 (32.3% SR) for 44.1pts (+44.5% ROI).
3. And Hellbender?
Well, a career record of 8 wins from 87 is hardly awe-inspiring, but in the right type of contest, he has some decent numbers behind him. At odds of 12/1 or shorter in Class 5/6 A/W handicaps his 8/87 record is transformed into 6/26 (23.1% SR) for 17.2pts (+66.2% ROI) profit. From which he is 3/10 (30% SR) for 16.9pts (+169% ROI) here at Southwell, also making the frame in five of his seven losing runs here.
He has won five times in total over today’s trip and is a dual course and distance winner. His last win was, admittedly 14 races and over 14 months ago, but was off a mark of 70 and I feel he’s weighted to win here today.
He showed plenty of signs of a return to old form last time out, when he finished third in a stronger race (full of multiple winners) than this one. He raced off 57 that day (a fortnight ago over course and distance), when touched off by just half a length plus a short head and given that he’s off the same mark day, Hellbender should not only be competitive, but should have a little too much for a group of largely similarly out of form rivals.
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