Stat of the Day, 11th March 2015
Our 3/1 BOG selection, Hellbender, was very well backed in the morning before drifting back out to 100/30 at the off and although he was weak in the market during the last couple of hours of trading, he still went off as favourite.
And when David Probert had him in a fairly handy position off the final bend, the opportunity was there to be taken. Unfortunately, the group he was chasing kicked on and he was unable to go with them, eventually coming home 5th of the 9 runners, some 9 lengths or so off the pace.
Things aren’t quite falling for us at present and if I’d have taken the easy option of putting up a Mullins hotpot from Cheltenham yesterday, i’d have probably ended up with Annie Power! They do, however, say that if at first you don’t succeed that you should try again. So, with that in mind, we’ll go back for a second successive effort at winning the…
And another 7f handicap on the All-Weather. This one features Kevin Ryan’s inform Realize who is priced up at 3/1 BOG in his bid to take advantage of a no doubt temporary leaner spell for the Mick Appleby yard.
Kevin’s recent record here at Southwell is decent enough, but the market does tend to identify potential winners from his yard here and follow the shorter priced runners is often very beneficial.
Since the start of 2011, his sub-6/1 runners here at Southwell have won 39 of 90 races (43.3% SR) producing level stakes profits of some 46.8pts (+52% ROI) and in handicap contests over trips of 6f to a mile, he has had 17 winners from 36 (47.2% SR) for profits of 21.7pts (+60.3% ROI).
And in Shane Gray, Kevin is able to call upon the services of a jockey who couldn’t really be in better form. 9 winners from 34 rides over the last 30 days is pretty good going by most jockeys’ standards, but the last fortnight has been special for him with 5 winners from his last 13 rides, one of those wins was over today’s trip on Realize’s last outing 12 days ago.
Realize, therefore, also comes here in good nick and is actually seeking to complete a 7 furlong A/W handicap hat-trick inside seven weeks to further extend a decent career record that currently stands at 6 wins from 19 (31.6% SR) for 17.1pts (+89.9% ROI) profit had you backed him each time he has run.
He’s 5/10 for 24.9pts on the All-Weather and his record here at Southwell contains a prior course and distance win. He is only up 3lbs for his most recent win when accompanied by Shane Gray who is 2/4 on this horse, having been on the saddle for both recent wins.
Shane only started riding Realize when the horse was moved to Kevin Ryan’s yard and Kevin has managed to get a bit more out of him during that 2 wins from 4 sequence since the move.
Realize is tongue tied again today and has 4 wins from 6 with the equipment in place and the small number of runners should be to his advantage, especially if any non-runners reduce the field further. To date, he is 4/10 in races of 4 to 8 runners, having won 3 of the 5 such races on the A/W (31511).
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