Double Dutch, 13th March 2015
BOG winners at 2/1 & 5/2 combined for a nice 9.5/1 double on Thursday, which not only beat SP by around 25%, it was also our third winning double of the week, taking our bottom line beyond 120pts for the first time.
Nicky Henderson’s mare Leaderofthedance was gutsy and had to dig deep to repel a late challenger to hold on and score by a length, giving us a wait of over six hours until the second leg of the selection.
Thankfully, it proved to be worth the wait as Come On Dave blasted out of the stalls and made all to win more comfortably than the official margin of 0.75 lengths might suggest.
Thursday’s results were as follows:
Leaderofthedance : WON at 15/8 (adv 2/1)
Presenting Lisa : u/p at 7/4 (adv 7/4)
Come On Dave : WON at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Dynamo Walt : u/p at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
Results to date:
515 winning selections from 1799 = 28.63%
162 winning bets in 466 days = 34.76%
P/L : +120.09pts (+12.89% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
It’s Day 4 at Cheltenham today, but we’ll keep it a bit more low key in the following A/W contests…
The proven form horse on this surface is Mymatechris, whose last four outings (1112) have resulted in three wins and a defeat by a short head. The last three of those runs have been over today’s course and distance, so it’s pretty safe to assume he knows how to handle this track.
His trainer’s string are in good nick at present and the yard has an excellent record here at Lingfield and they’ll expecting Mymatechris to go in again at 2/1 BOG today.
Standing in their way I likely to be the undoubted class horse in the pack, Pinzolo representing Charlie Appleby who has a good record in A/W handicaps and does particularly well with handicap debutants on the A/W and also with horses switching from turf to A/W for the first time.
It is these variables that have contrived to make Pinzolo a 7/2 BOG chance here, a price that might look foolish/generous if he takes to the track well enough for a horse who was placed 3123 in four Listed events on grass last summer and was considered good enough to compete in two Group 1 races, including The Derby.
Moonmeister at 2/1 BOG is the obvious starting point for me. He’s 4 from 5 here at Dundalk including 2 wins from 2 over course and distance. He’s had a break for the last 12 weeks and should come here fit and fresh and ready to pick up where he left off with a win over course and distance a week before Christmas. He had Sharjah four lengths behind that day and that horse has since won 3 of 4 outings.
Sharjah’s last win came off a mark 7lbs higher than his defeat to Moonmeister, suggesting that our runner here might not be too inconvenienced with an 8lb rise. Pat Smullen is in the saddle again today, defending his own unbeaten 2/2 record on the horse and I think it would take a mighty effort to beat them.
If, however, one is going to beat, it’s likely to be Gold Focus whose best form comes in and around today’s trip. She landed a double on the turf last summer and in one of only two starts here at Dundalk, was far from disgraced by finishing second in a strong handicap over course and distance. On the whole, this looks a weaker field than that run and since she was only beaten by a length that day, the signs are good.
Gold Focus is also returning from a break, so it’ll be interesting to see if she gets away sharply enough, because if she does, she might just provide the favourite with some work, making her an ideal backup at 5/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Mymatechris / Moonmeister @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : bet365)
Mymatechris / Gold Focus @ 17/1 (2/1 & 5/1 : Paddy Power)
Pinzolo / Moonmeister @ 12/1 (10/3 & 2/1 : bet365)
Pinzolo / Gold Focus @ 26/1 (7/2 & 5/1 : Boylesports)