Stat of the Day, 14th March 2015
Cappielow Park was a non-runner yesterday, so I’ve nothing to report on, meaning I can get straight on to Saturday’s selection, which goes in the…
Where I’ve just taken 3/1 BOG on Waltz Darling, who is trained by Keith Reveley and will be ridden by his son James for this 3 mile, Class 3 handicap hurdle on good to soft ground.
Since the start of 2010, Keith’s NH Handicappers have won 17% of their races with 81 winners from 476 runners. Backing them blindly to a £10 level stake would have made you a cool £891 profit a more than satisfactory rate of return of 18.7%. Those sent off in the 2/1 to 9/12 price range are 63/308 (20.5% SR) for 86.2pts (+28% ROI) and his handicap hurdlers in that time are 33/199 (16.6% SR) for 57pts (+28.6% ROI) profit.
Since 2010, Keith Reveley’s handicap hurdlers are 28/136 (20.6% SR) for 55.5pts (+40.8% ROI) profit when priced between 2/1 & 9/1 inclusive.
Waltz Darling drops down a grade today and since the start of 2009, Keith Reveley’s NH handicap class droppers have won 25 of their 113 races (22.1% SR) for level stakes profits of 96.8pts at an ROI of 85.7% with those dropping down just the one level (like Waltz Darling here) are 19/92 (20.7% SR) for 76pts (+82.6% ROI). Those runners priced 2/1 to 8/1 are 21/77 (27.3% SR) for 53.8pts (+69.9% ROI) whilst his handicap hurdlers dropping in class are 9/47 (19.2% SR) for 40.4pts profit at an ROI of 85.9% to date.
Keith Reveley’s handicap hurdlers priced at 2/1 to 8/1 dropping down 1 grade are 6/24 (25% SR) for 14.7pts (+61.3% ROI) profit since 2009.
Keith’s son James is in the saddle today and since the start of 2010, the partnership has had 125 winners from 680 runners and if you’d blindly stuck a tenner on each of them, the 18.4% strike rate would have yielded £1484 profit as a 21.8% return on your money. In handicap company, those figures revert to 70 winners from 383 runners (18.3% SR) and 104.6pts (+27.3% ROI) profit with handicap hurdlers contributing 24 wins from 155 (15.5% SR) and 32.6pts (+21% ROI) profit.
Together, with handicap hurdlers priced below 10/1, Team Reveley are 22/113 (19.5% SR) for 30.6pts (+27.1% ROI) profit since 2010.
Waltz Darling comes here in decent form having won three times and been placed twice from just seven outings in the last five months and was a runner-up at Doncaster last time out. There was no disgrace in his five length defeat there by Call The Cops who was a winner at Cheltenham (Pertemps) on Wednesday.
He’s 1/1 at today’s trip and 4/7 on good to soft ground and he is used to being ridden by James Reveley as they have 5 wins and 5 places from 15 starts together.
Conditions look ideal for Waltz Darling to get back to winning ways and with nothing of Call The Cops calibre to contend with here, a similar run to last time out should be enough for a win at 3/1 BOG. That’s the price I’ve taken with Boylesports, but it is widely available elsewhere, as you’ll see when you…
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