SotD : Monday 16/03/15

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th March 2015

It was, sadly, a case of right stats, wrong horse at Newcastle on Saturday, as Team Reveley brought home two winners from their four hurdlers, but ours wasn’t one of them!

Waltz Darling was held up for a late challenge and started to make headway from 2 out, but was rather one-paced in his efforts and was soon beaten into 5th place at our advised 3/1 to round off a truly miserable week for us here at SotD.

Monday marks the start of a new week and with a clean sheet, I want to get the week off to a flyer by finding the winner of the…

3.20 Taunton:

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Despite Monday usually being a slow day stats-wise!

The horse I’m backing today is the 9/4 BOG Ballyegan whose form has been superb since returning to action in November after a break of 31 weeks from racing. I don’t know what went on during his absence, but he has seemed a different animal since his return with finishes of 1122231 with a 3 from 3 record in chase contests.

He was a course and distance winner here a week ago, taking his track record to 3 wins from 8 here at Taunton (1121 in his last four visits), a figure which is just one of a number of stats to support his nomination today. He has won three times on good to soft ground and he is 1/1 over today’s trip (acquired in last week’s C&D victory). he has finished 3rd and 1st in 2 starts under today’s jockey and his 3/8 record here at Taunton is actually 3/6 when only considering chases, having won his last three.

Since 2010 former course and distances winners returning to Taunton on the back of a win (anywhere) are 18/54 (33.33% SR) for 7.2pts (+13.3% ROI) profit from blind backing and although it’s a fairly small sample size, I think it would be foolish to ignore the results.

With today’s contest in mind, the 18/54 stat can be further analysed as follows…

Chasers are 8/16 (50% SR) for 8.72pts (+54.5% ROI)
Horses priced 5/1 or shorter are 18/38 (47.4% SR) for 23.2pts (+61% ROI)
Those who won over C&D LTO are 15/45 (33.3% SR) for 9.7pts (+21.6% ROI)
Those whose last run was no more than 15 days ago are 11/24 (45.8% SR)

Once again, small sample sizes, but surely too successful to be purely coincidental. And just for information purposes, chasers priced at 5/1 or shorter who won over course and distance last time out no more than 15 days earlier won 5 of 6 (83.3% SR) races for level stakes profits of 7.65pts at an ROI of 127.4%, the latest of which was today’s selection, Ballyegan himself back in November!

No mega profits on offer today, but I do expect to collect from a 1pt win bet on Ballyegan at 9/4 BOG, a price you can take from either BetVictor or Paddy Power. For more details…

…click here for the latest betting on the 3.20 Taunton

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Here is today’s racecard.

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