Double Dutch, 16th March 2015
A 2nd, a 3rd, a 4th and a non-runner was the outcome from Saturday and whilst that’s pretty consistent selecting getting a run for our money, it’s still a case of close, but no cigar!
It meant a loss of 2pts on the day, but didn’t detract form the good week we’d had. 8 winners from 23 selections led to 3 winning days from 6 and a 19.69pts (+164.1% ROI) profit from our 12pts staked. We’ll take that as often as we can!
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Engrossing : 3rd at 9/4 (adv 3/1)
Roseerrow : non-runner (adv 7/2)
Port Melon : 2nd at 11/8 (adv 9/4)
Sugar Baron : u/p at 2/1 (adv 7/4)
Results to date:
516 winning selections from 1806 = 28.57%
162 winning bets in 468 days = 34.69%
P/L : +116.09pts (+12.65% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
New week, clean sheet, winners required!
My eyes light up a little bit when I see a Henry Oliver runner in a handicap, as they have invariably been finely tuned for their races. Over the last three months, the yard has been in really good form, consistently averaging over 30% strike rate and in Take The Crown (5/2 BOG), they’ve a really interesting and consistent (1332 in last four outings) runner.
He was only beaten by a neck last time out having been overhauled late on when done for finishing speed over 2 miles to be beaten by a neck. It is, however, anticipated that the step up in trip allied to better ground will be more to his liking and (with no disrespect to previous jockeys intended) the booking of Paddy Brennan to ride Take The Crown is a positive move for me, especially with his 21/81 record here over the last four years.
He won’t have it all his own way and the 2/1 BOG favourite Money For Nothing is the one most likely to cause him some grief. He has also been in good nick of late, finishing as runner-up in each of his last three starts over fences, all over 2 miles, all by fairly small margins of defeat and all featuring late jumping errors when struggling to keep up with the late pace injection.
The step up in 2m4f should also benefit him, as he won’t have to kick on as hard, as he has been forced to previously and in Messrs King and Hutchinson he represent a team with a very good record here at Southwell. The handicapper tends not to do Money For Nothing many favours due to his decent perfomances in defeat, but his mark is at least unaltered today, enabling him to remain as competitive as ever.
Not only is the Pipe/Scudamore combination a successful one, the yard is in good form, they have a good recent record here at Taunton and do well with their debutants. All of which points to a good opening run over hurdles for Perspicace, who has joined the Pipe team after showing some promise on the level, finishing as runner-up in four of five races at 1m2f to 1m4f.
Those runs suggests he’ll not get outpaced here today and as a Pipe horse, you just know he’ll have been well schooled and the fact that he’s by Sir Percy would also suggest that taking a hurdle shouldn’t be beyond Perspicace and this looks like a very winnable/weak race for him to start in and the odds of 11/4 BOG, whilst not massive might prove generous after the fact!
The one he’ll have to beat, Maverik, has a similar background, but with far more experience. He competed in 26 races on the flat/AW and won three races off a mark of 85 (twice) and 87, suggesting he’ll be no mug between the hurdles. He’s already had experience of getting himself over them too, with a fifth placed finish on debut at Ludlow eighteen days ago.
He looked a little green that day, if truth be told, but coming from the Williams yard, he’ll have been worked on and it’s not unrealistic to expect improvement for having had the experience and if Perspicace isn’t our winner here, then it’s likely to be Maverik at 2/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Money For Nothing / Maverik @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : generally)
Money For Nothing / Perspicace @ 11.19/1 (9/4 & 11/4 : BetBright)
Take The Crown / Maverik @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : generally)
Take The Crown / Perspicace @ 12.13/1 (5/2 & 11/4 : generally)