Stat of the Day, 17th March 2015
We got a very welcome and long overdue win yesterday courtesy of Ballyegan who was heavily backed in from our advised 9/4 BOG price to a very short 6/4 at the off. A friend of mine emailed me around lunchtime saying it was about the 15/8 mark and I explained that I felt 7/4 was where he’d end up/should be.
I am keen to provide winners at the right price and I’m pretty confident that eve if you don’t exactly the same as I do, you’re still beating the book more often than not.
Numbers aside for a moment, I was impressed by the way out 10yr old battled on at Taunton. When his rivals come up to him a couple of fences, you’d be forgiven for thinking “here we go again!”, but he still has something ion reserve, kicked on again and won well in the end by 3.25L ahead of one of last week’s selections Green du Ciel.
Like Ballyegan, we now need to kick on and find more winners, preferably starting with Tuesday’s…
And a 5/2 BOG bet on Follow the Tracks, who like yesterday’s runner-up is trained by Brian Barr and those of you who remember what I told you about Brian last week, will know that he does pretty well with his small string of handicappers, especially when the money is down.
More specifically, in NH handicaps with runners priced at 5/1 or shorter, he is 7/20 (35% SR) for 12.5pts with the majority of runners (and all the winners!) coming over hurdles with a record of 7/16 (43.75% SR) for 16.5pts profit at an ROI of 103.2%.
Now that’s a small sample size, but it’s not only a very valid stat, but it complements a couple of general non-trainer based sets of data that I’m going to share with you now. One is quite simple and self explanatory, one is a microsystem I use quite often that has a fairly rigid set of rules, but I’ll give you the rules too!
Let’s s with the micro itself and it’s based around handicap hurdlers who won a handicap hurdle last time out, but the strict criteria I use to narrow down the runners is as follows…
Males aged 4 to 8 inclusive with an OR of 81 to 130 inclusive carrying 9-13 to 10-13 and whose LTO hcp hurdle win was 3 to 60 days ago. Taking out any one of those rules still makes the micro profitable, but the restrictions keep the dataset more manageable.
If you backed every horse fitting the criteria since New Years’ Day 2012, you’d have placed 708 bets and netted 151 winners (21.3% SR) for level stakes profits of 141.7pts at an ROI of 20%. You could filter out some of the short-priced runners and the longshots to improve the figures, if you wanted to, but the original figures stand up well.
(you could, however, apply a simple 6/4 to 10/1 odds filter and get to 124 winners from 543 (22.8% SR) for 150pts (+27.6% ROI) without too much hassle!)
Follow the Tracks was a winner by 18 lengths last week and this leads me to look at horses who won comfortably last time out. We know they’re going up in the weights for a win anyway, so those who win with plenty in hand should, in theory, be best equipped to cope with the extra burden.
So, I took the LTO male handicap hurdle winners who won in the previous 3 to 60 days as above, but I’ve dispensed with the age/OR/weight criteria from before and just focused on those who won by four lengths or more and this simple set of rules gives us an excellent set of data highlighting 213 winners from 828 runners (25.7% SR) and level stakes profits of 187pts at an ROI of 22.6%, from which runners here at Exeter are 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 9.3pts (+54.7% ROI) profit.
A simple Evens to 11/1 filter weeds out the long and the short, leaving us with a record reading 180/687 (26.2% SR) for 193pts (+28.1% ROI). This filter doesn’t alter the 7/17 figures here at Exeter, but closer inspection of that 7/17 stat reveals that at odds below 3/1, the runners are 6/10 (60% SR) for 5.28pts (+52.8% ROI) with the four losing runners finishing 223U.
It’s another selection that isn’t going to break the bank, but one that I think will shorten in price as the race approaches giving us some value in the early prices available. It’s a pretty solid selection in my opinion and so I’m backing Follow the Tracks at 5/2 BOG with Coral. The same price is currently available with BetVictor and SkyBet, so the choice is yours after you…
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