Stat of the Day, 18th March 2015
Follow the Tracks was withdrawn from the race yesterday at 3.30pm a little more than 90 minutes before the scheduled off time, with colic cited as the reason for his non-participation: we obviously wish him well.
So, with no action to report upon, let’s head straight to Essex for some A/W racing in the…
Where Dean Ivory’s Varsovian is priced up at 11/4 BOG as he aims to continue his excellent run of form, whilst stepping up in class today for this Class 4 handicap over 6 furlongs.
This is just the kind of event that Dean’s runners do well in, as since 2009 his A/W handicappers running over trips of 6 to 9.5 furlongs at odds of 7/4 to 10/1 have won 51 of their 268 (19% SR) outings, generating level stakes profits of 98.6pts at an ROI of 36.8%.
In the same period of time, Dean’s runners stepping up in class in A/W handicaps are 9/33 (27.3% SR) for 28.1pts (+85.2% ROI) profit when sent off in the 2/1 to 15/2 price range and in Varsovian, he has a horse on the very top of his game.
Varsovian has won four of his nine A/W handicaps to date and made the frame in two others in a run of form reading 97211241.
His record over today’s trip reads 121141 and he has finished 11241 under today’s jockey Jimmy Quinn and he tends to fare best in the sort of field size he’ll face today as he has returned figures of 21141 in races of 8 to 11 runners.
Varsovian was a winner last time out and that was when he beat Thataboy by a head at Lingfield 39 days ago with both horses running off a mark of 73. Thataboy was raised 2lbs as he stepped up in class last Tuesday and as only beaten by three parts of a length behind a horse rated 83. That form suggests that Varsovian’s 3lb rise might well be he takes in his stride, as I think he’s still on the up.
He might well decide to blast out and hold on today in the absence of any genuine pacemaker in the race and if he does so, he’ll be hard to peg back making my 1pt win bet on Varsovian at 11/4 BOG an even more attractive proposition. I’ve taken that price with Boylesports, but at least 8 other firms are offering the same odds, so we should all get on!
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