Stat of the Day, 20th March 2015
Rock Charm firmed up slightly in the market to be sent off as the 2/1 favourite and ran pretty well, despite finishing third. The Chelmsford track seems to be riding deep/slow and it looked a very open race approaching the final furlong.
Several runners, including our own, tried to kick on to no avail and in the end only the eventual winner was able to pick up any extra momentum. Results are generally better this week than of late, but we’ve still work to do to make profit for the month, so I could ideally do with having found the winner of the…
A Class 3 Handicap Chase over 3m on good to soft ground where Alan King’s Desert Joe is rated a 9/2 BOG chance with Skybet to make it back to back wins over fences at this trip.
Alan King’s record in handicap chases here at Newbury with runners priced in the 2/1 to 9/1 range since 2010 is 6 winners from 33 (18.2% SR) for 7.3pts (22.1% ROI), but don’t worry I’m not building my selection around that stat! That’s just the hors(e) d’oeuvre to the main course later. 😀
Wayne Hutchinson is in the saddle today, as regular King-watchers would have expected and together they make a great team in general, but let’s just focus on their record over fences, which since the start of 2010 comprises of 55 winners from 270 (20.4% SR) runners for level stakes profits of 49.2pts at an ROI of 18.2%.
In handicap chases those figures become 33/186 (17.7% SR) for 62.5pts (+33.6% ROI) with runners priced in the 5/2 to 13/2 band winning 20 of 80 (25% SR) for 29.7pts at an ROI of 37.2%.
Desert Joe has been in good form since unseating his rider at Exeter in a 3m chase last November and there were mitigating circumstances at play that day. He’d been off the track for over 2 years (746 days) and was making his chasing debut. He’d slipped on landing after the 4th fence and ejected poor Jack Doyle from the saddle!
Since then, he has ran three times finishing 221 in progressively better runs, culminating in a win at Leicester five weeks ago. The three horses immediately (2.5L, 6.25L & 9.5L) were rated far higher (14lbs, 12lbs & 6lbs) than him and all went on to compete at Cheltenham last week. None of them really did much at the festival, but they did at least get there! And a 6lb rise for our runner doesn’t look too punitive based on what he beat.
He’s 121 in his last three runs on good to soft ground, 2/4 over this trip, 321 under today’s jockey and U21 at this Class 3 level.
Now let’s look more generally at some bigger numbers to back up the selection…
Since the start of 2010, 6 to 9yr old males running at Class 3 or 4 level who were winners in a handicap chase by 2 to 10 lengths last time out in the previous 11-150 days went on to win again on 204 of 869 (23.5% SR) occasions recording profits of 212.8pts profit at an ROI of 24.5%. It’s a very profitable angle that I follow and its really not as complicated in real life as it looks in print!
If we break those 869 runners down to fit today’s selection, you’ll see that each filter is still profitable, despite a dilution of the number of qualifiers, as follows…
Those running in a chase : 196/833 (23.5% SR) for 192.5pts (+23.1% ROI)
Those competing at Class 3 level : 92/439 (21% SR) for 111.8pts (+25.5% ROI)
Those aged 9 yrs old : 40/177 (22.6% SR) for 70.9pts (+40.1% ROI)
Those whose last run (& win) was 11-45 days ago : 185/753 = 24.6% SR for 197.9pts (+26.3% ROI)
You can use the above like pick and mix to make winning combinations and if you put them all together, you can see that…
9 yr old males in Class 3 handicap chases at odds of 2/1 to 12/1, 11 to 45 days after a win by 2 to 10 lengths in a handicap chase are 12/58 (20.7% SR) for 35.1pts profit at an ROI of 60.6%.
This looks like a decent contest and at 9/2 BOG with SkyBet, there could well be some value in a 1pt bet on Desert Joe. If you’ve not got a SkyBet account yet, then you should get one by clicking the Skybet name on this page or you can…
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