Double Dutch, 21st March 2015
One of those ugly 1-2 and 2-3 days yesterday, as Chris departs the scene for a couple of weeks to get some spring sun. In his stead, you’ll have me (Matt) until early April. Hopefully I can continue the fine recent work, and move the profit total on a wee bit, starting today…
Friday’s results were as follows:
Light The City : 3rd at 11/4 (adv 5/2)
Mad For Road : 2nd at 85/40 (adv 9/4)
Poitin: WON at 5/4 (adv 7/4)
Windward Passage : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
522 winning selections from 1826 = 28.59%
163 winning bets in 473 days = 34.46%
P/L : +113.67pts (+12.02% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
It’s a typically trappy Saturday, but we’ve had some joy on these most competitive of weekdays in the last few months, so hope is alive…
An early start for Double Dutch as we seek a solid base from which to spring in a novice hurdle at the Berkshire track. Kings Tempest, trained by Warren Greatrex, looks a strong favourite. Winner of a good ground bumper this time last year on similar spring ground, he ran a fine second to Supreme Novices’ Hurdle third favourite, Jollyallan, on his hurdling bow.
That was three months ago, and he looks to have been saved from slogging through the mud for this better turf. Greatrex went through a lean spell in midwinter, but is back firing again now, and this lad looks sure to go close.
If he does falter, the most likely beneficiary is Nicky Henderson’s Hassle. He too looks to have been saved for better ground, after a promising fourth in a Doncaster maiden hurdle in December. That race is working out really well – as a matter of fact, The Geegeez Geegee (winner since) ran in both that Donny race and the Jollyallan/Kings Tempest race!
Rated 95 on the flat, and with Barry Geraghty riding, he has every chance of progressing from that first hurdle run; and it won’t take much of a step forward to be in the frame.
I do have a slight niggle about the pace here, with Needless Shouting a possible unpestered front runner, but our two runners should have too much class and toe for him if that scenario does play out.
I’m taking on the favourite here, which is not standard DD procedure. But before you think I’m bonkers, hear me out. The jolly for this mares’ beginners’ chase is a horse called Feenakilmeedy. She has a touch of class about her, true, but so far she’s looked a most unnatural jumper. Indeed, her chase career to date has form figures of F2FP; and her hurdle form is not much more inspiring, with two further non-completions in five starts.
No, if she wins, fair enough, but I’m happy to look elsewhere, and specifically in the direction of Kindly Vinnie and Shuilamach.
The first named is the second highest rated in the field, though only on 107. She fell on her chase debut, but as generally been a reliable conveyance, as demonstrated by silver medals over hurdles either side of that tumble. She could progress over fences yet, and that would make her tough to beat in a very weak race.
Shuilamach also fell on her sole start – yikes! – but she is the highest rated on hurdle figures, at 112. She’s raced almost exclusively on heavy so far, but plenty of Presenting progeny go well on better ground. Indeed, overall, his offspring perform better the faster the ground, so there is hope for improvement there. Paul Nolan’s mare is in otherwise good form, with a win and a third place this year, and a clear round makes here the likely winner.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Kings Tempest / Kindly Vinnie @ 9.125/1 (5/4 & 7/2 : totesport)
Kings Tempest / Shuilamach @ 10.25/1 (5/4 & 4/1 : totesport)
Hassle / Kindly Vinnie @ 11.9375/1 (15/8 & 7/2 : totesport)
Hassle / Shuilamach @ 13.375/1 (15/8 & 4/1 : totesport)