Double Dutch, 25th March 2015
It’s not really running for us at the moment, something which happens with Double Dutch often enough. As the bottom line shows, however, this is a daily play worth persevering with for the long term.
Tuesday saw us notch a 1-3 in leg one, but a non-runner as I posted meant we were down to a single selection on leg two. Sendiym was well beaten at 7/4, but some consolation came in the fact that the non-runner converted to a win single on the winner of leg one, Toymaker.
That was a silver lining, and restricted losses to 0.56 points. Not ideal, but better than now’t.
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Toymaker: WON at 15/8 (adv 7/4)
Happydoingnothing: 3rd at 7/2 (adv 10/3)
Sendiym: 5th at 7/4 (adv 15/8)
Blue Talisman: NR at … (adv 11/4)
Results to date:
524 winning selections from 1837 = 28.52%
163 winning bets in 476 days = 34.24%
P/L : +109.11pts (+11.47% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Let’s try to get things moving again, starting in the…
Otago Trail is the early favourite here, but he’s drifting like a barge. The reasons for that are 1. he’s up against some solid opposition, 2. he’s better on a more galloping track, and 3. he wants softer ground to show his best. He also has to give weight away all round, and his trainer is bang out of form. Despite all of those things, he could still win, but there is a pair of credible alternatives.
Drumlee Lad is unbeaten in a point and an Irish maiden hurdle, and makes his debut for David Pipe this afternoon, and the early market is speaking strongly in his favour after a three month layoff.
Earthmoves represents Paul Nicholls, the top trainer at the track and, as usual, a man in form. He’s way better than the P he earned for his last run (on heavy), and this quicker ground/tighter course configuration should suit him much better.
I like the favourite here, plain and simple. Callac‘s trainer, David Simcock, is in fine recent form, and this horse has run well in a pair of course and distance maidens. He’s been given a few weeks since his last run, and should be ready to win now. Unfortunately, the price reflects that to a large degree.
Against him is a thoroughly exposed horse in Rialto Magic, and it might be worth taking a chance with one of the newcomers. Charles Hills has his early season runners in fair form (won a maiden with a 3yo filly last week), and Valentine Mist looks a likely sort on paper. She too is a 3yo filly, and is related to black type horses. In a race lacking depth, she could prove best of the debutantes, which might be enough to be best in the race!
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Drumlee Lad / Callac @ 6.7/1 (5/2 & 6/5:bet365 / SJ)
Drumlee Lad / Valentine Mist @ 25.25/1 (11/4 & 6/1:Hills)
Earthmoves / Callac @ 7.25/1 (11/4 & 6/5:SJ)
Earthmoves / Valentine Mist @ 23.75/1 (23/10 & 13/2:Betbright)