Stat of the Day, 27th March 2015
It’s all very well banging on about value, but unless you’re any sort of judge of it, the words sound hollow. Luckily, both Chris and I are at least some sort of judges. And even more luckily, the value sermon was rewarded immediately, despite the horse actually drifting even after a non-runner.
As it happened, the reduction from eight to seven runners mean we got paid out at a quarter the odds on our 10/1 Golden Milan bets, making for a second juicy score of the week: this time it was 6.25 points profit.
I think that means, after just four days of my stint – and with another eight days to go – I’ll be leaving the seat with more than when I started. That’s actually quite a nice pressure release (it’s bloody hard trying to find winners for people, especially in a down run), though of course I’ll be working as hard as usual to add more to our collective pots.
Those efforts will continue tomorrow in the…
I’ve been onto this nice little earner for a while now. And it has a lot in common with Thursday’s 10/1 scorer. Here’s what Golden Milan and Azure Glamour share: they’re both trying to win on their first handicap hurdle start for trainers who have been excellent at effecting this particular ploy in the past year.
For Rebecca Curtis on Thursday, we’ll supplant Nicky Richards. ‘Son of Gordon’ has been remarkably good at getting his beasts handicapped this season, winning with an almost ludicrous seven from eleven (64%) first time handicap hurdle starters.
That septet was worth a profit of 28.58, and there’s little more to say about things than that; other than that Richards has scored with three of his dozen Newcastle runners in the past year (25%) and placed with another three (50% place rate).
It’s a mammoth field for this one, and Azure Glamour is a tad short at 6/1 (PP) on the evidence of his form. But his trainer’s record says we need to look some way beyond what he’s shown to date on this first run for four months and step up in trip from most of his races thus far. Win only is the bold/reckless* (*delete as applicable) call, based on the fact that none of the four non-winners in the sample of eleven handicap debutants made the frame.
Do make sure that’s still the top price by…
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