Stat of the Day, 28th March 2015
It was a case of “from the sublime to the ridiculous” on Friday, when 6/1 nomination Azure Glamour drifted out to 8/1 at the off, and was promptly tailed off and pulled up with half of the race still to go.
Clearly, when we bet a horse on the basis of trainer stats rather than the actual horse itself, we are open to such monumental clunkers; and I’d have little hesitation putting up a similar type in future. After all, Golden Milan (10/1 winner Thursday) had a fairly similar profile.
Onwards, to Saturday, the last day of the SotD week…
A big field and a short price is the ostensibly unattractive wagering proposition here, but Pagham Belle is expected to outclass her field again. She comes here on the hat-trick and won pulling the proverbial cart six days ago at Wincanton.
In doing so she further enhanced trainer Nigel Hawke’s incredible run of form: in the last 30 days he’s saddled 19 runners, ten of which have won! That 53% strike rate has netted profits of 47.61 points.
This is a low grade handicap hurdle in which most of the field are destined never to win a race. Our lass started on such a lowly mark – 77 – that she still races here in the basement grade and with just the mandatory penalty to carry. Her rating of 88 translates to a weight of 11-3 which, granted, is more than she lugged for her two wins, the most recent of which was actually at a higher level.
5/2 (bet365, Hills) may not excite everyone in a 16 runner handicap, but if she can handle the extra ballast, I expect she’ll go very close, and I think she’s value.
Do make sure that’s still the top price by…
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