SotD: 30/03/15

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 30th March 2015

Pagham Belle’s run on Saturday in many ways typified Stat of the Day’s week: two good recent wins but finished a bit flat. She came there like the winner but either didn’t stay, was tired after recent exertions, or couldn’t defy the penalty. Most likely a combination of the three. She stuck on for fourth, but as the 15/8 favourite that was a tad disappointing, despite us having the best of the market at 5/2.

Still, a week where we add the best part of ten points to the ledger is a good week; and we’ll attempt more of the same before Chris returns at the back end of the Easter weekend, beginning Monday in the…

3.25 Warwick:

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I’ve nominated Midnight Belle each way here before this season, and she ran a reasonable third to reward the place part of our investment. Since that run in early November, she’s put a consistent string of performances together which includes two wins and two seconds. Her hat-trick bid the last day was foiled, but that was in Grade 3 company, and the drop back to Class 2 looks right.

The stat is her seven out of ten place record at this sort of distance (five wins). Indeed, she’s been in the first three on nine of those ten starts, though some obviously failed to reward each way support. The full string is 1131332117, that ‘7’ being in higher grade.

Soft ground is spot on for her – form in soft ground handicaps reads 11111321 – and she won her only previous start in Class 2.

It’s a competitive race, with Cheltenham placed horse Horizontal Speed the form pick. But he could be ‘over the top’ and will have to contend with a pace war in any case, whereas Midnight Belle looks ideally placed to stalk what should be a frantic early gallop.

She too has had a long season, but conditions are plum for her and each way gives us three bites at the cherry, assuming there aren’t two or more non-runners before post time. 9/1 looks perfectly fair, each way the call.

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