Stat of the Day, 31st March 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 31st March 2015

Midnight Belle was disappointing on Monday – I actually really quite fancied her – eventually finishing a well beaten fifth of nine at 10/1, a point longer than nominated. She’d drifted out to 14’s during the day, something which never especially bothers me (within reason). We close out a largely frustrating month with a really interesting one in the…

3.05 Exeter:

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This is a novices’ limited handicap chase, and the one I’m drawn to like a moth to a light bulb is Tom Neary. He’s making his debut over fences, and is also having his first run for Robert Walford… and is also having his first start in a handicap! Let’s dissect all these elements:

It’s always interesting when a horse gets qualified for a handicap mark over hurdles and then goes straight to fences, especially so when there’s a material break between qualifying for and then running in the first handicap. Tom Neary hasn’t run for 128 days.

When he was last seen he was having his third run for Keiran Burke, famous as the trainer of Hunt Ball before that one’s owner went a bit doolally. Interestingly enough, this one’s a half brother to Hunt Ball too, so could well be a bit better than he’s shown to date.

New trainer Robert Walford is in good form just now, with a 20% strike rate in the past month. His record with runners first time in a handicap is solid too: two wins and a place from ten runners in the last year. Oh, and Walford’s record with horses on their first start for him also shows a positive ROI over the past five years.

Tom Neary had some fair form in novice and maiden hurdles and, if he has been improved for any of a number of reasons since that last run four months ago, the 9/2 generally available could look tasty. He’s a conspirator’s wet dream, and I’m biting!

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…clicking here for the betting on the 3.05 Exeter

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.

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