Double Dutch, 31st March 2015
A crappy start to the week with the first leg bombing out at the hands of a significantly supported runner from a big yard. Winner Massagot had been 9/1 early, opened up 7/1 on course, was backed into 9/2 and won well. That scuppered that, so it was of academic interest only that 3/1 Sublime Talent took leg two. We did, of course, have the second placed horse in the first part of the bet. Onwards…
Monday’s results were as follows:
Argot: 2nd at Evs (adv 6/4)
Brother Bennett: 4th at 4/1 (adv 10/3)
Sublime Talent: WON at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Marie Des Anges: 3rd at 11/10 (adv 11/10)
Results to date:
531 winning selections from 1857 = 28.59%
165 winning bets in 481 days = 34.3%
P/L : +106.77pts (+11.1% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Only two races today that I was even moderately happy to include, and they were these…
Just the four going to post, and two with a form edge in Mrs Peachey and Ultimatum Du Roy. Mrs P has been in great form lately, winning and then finishing third. Her trainer, Kim Bailey, has an excellent recent and long term track record, partially due to this horse’s win here a couple of seasons ago. The form of her third to Lily Waugh looks good, with that one being aimed at a Grade 3 now, and the second falling when looking a likely winner on her subsequent run. David Bass may attempt to control the pace in what could be a tactical affair – that would be another plus.
Ultimatum Du Roy has won two of his last three, finishing second in between times, and has excellent track form. He steps up to three miles here, and while it’s not certain he’ll stay, the undemanding terrain at Huntingdon gives him every chance.
Leg two is a seven furlong basement handicap at Southwell. Last time out course and distance winner, Shearian, looks the one to beat. She had a couple of these in behind when a seven length victor there, including the impossible-to-win-with Sleet (cue Double Dutch-bashing triumph for that one…).
Shearian’s previous track form was solid in two starts for a prior trainer, and Tracy Waggott may have eked out a bit of progress. If she has, I’d expect this one to go in again.
If not, there are a few that might benefit, and the most appealing is the well named Risk N’Reward. A dual winner in quick succession here in January, David O’Meara’s lad was beaten over course and distance, but in higher class, last time; and the drop back in grade should help him to get more involved this time.
Amenable and Quasqazah look like making this a good test, which will favour both of the selected pair, who can track that perceived early speed and be best placed to pounce down the interminable straight.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Mrs Peachey/ Shearian @ 11.47/1 (15/8 & 10/3 : Skybet)
Mrs Peachey / Risk N’Reward @ 23/1 (2/1 & 7/1: SJ)
Ultimatum Du Roy / Shearian @ 8.09/1 (11/10 & 10/3: Skybet)
Ultimatum Du Roy / Risk N’Reward @ 15.8/1 (11/10 & 7/1: SJ)